Why MLS is Switching their Schedule - and what it means for USL
This week, MLS made the announcement that its owners have voted on and approved a plan to switch to their schedule to match the European calendar in 2027. The move will see the league’s season run from end of summer to spring, with the season starting the end of July and the MLS Cup playoffs concluding in late May. It will also include a winter break from mid-December to early February. It’s arguably one of the largest announcements in league history - no other major league in the United States has so significantly changed their schedule in the modern era. But why is MLS making this change?
Pros for MLS:
The Transfer Window
The biggest reason that MLS is making this change is, unsurprisingly, finances. The schedule switch is primarily so that MLS’s transfer windows align with major European leagues. For those of you fairly new to the sport, think of transfer windows like American trade deadlines - you can only buy players from other clubs during a transfer window. For most of the world’s major leagues, there are two windows: an offseason window in July and August, and a mid-season transfer window during January.
Increasingly, MLS teams are buying and selling from European clubs. Until now, though, this has caused issues. During MLS’s offseason over the winter, when most clubs would try and secure their major signings, Europe’s major transfer window is either not yet open or clubs are in the middle of their season. Few teams want to sell a star player in the middle of the season and those that do are going to charge a premium. Then, during Europe’s offseason, MLS teams that are signing stars are bringing them in towards the end of MLS’s season, giving them minimal impact. A recent example is LAFC’s signing of Son Heung-min in August, giving him less than 2 months to impact the regular season. And for MLS clubs hoping to move young talent, the ideal time is the offseason. But that’s the middle of Europe’s season, when teams are looking to spend their funds on the pieces they’re missing, not young talent for the future. Prices between MLS and European clubs are the major factor in this — MLS’s current schedule essentially forces them to buy at peak prices and sell when the player market is at its lowest.
Competitive Advantage
A secondary impact of this change is that it also roughly aligns MLS’s schedule with Liga MX in Mexico. For a long time, MLS pundits have excused MLS’s poor performance against Liga MX teams in North American competitions as being a result of the schedule misalignment - The Champions Cup starts in February, when Liga MX teams are in the middle of their season and MLS teams have barely finalized their rosters. This move will remove that excuse and put MLS on an even playing field with teams across the southern border.
Cons for MLS:
The Weather
The most obvious impact of this change is the weather. A 2 month break in the middle of the season to avoid winter weather makes it easy for clubs to lose momentum - not to mention that clubs could easily become “out of sight out of mind” for many casual fans. To make matters worse, this 2 month break will probably mean most northern teams will go 3-4 months without a home game. Very few diehards, and even fewer casuals, will want to sit for a New England, Minnesota, or Toronto home game in November or March. When New England hosted Pumas for a quarterfinal game in the snow in early March 2022, the announced attendance was only 10,441 and the actual attendance appeared to be significantly lower. MLS will have to make a choice - either northern teams go several months without a home game, or the attendance of northern clubs will collapse. Player acquisition for northern teams will also become problematic; convincing European or Latin American talent to play in Minnesota in the winter over Florida or California is a significant ask.
Other Sports
The other problem is the entire reason MLS is on a spring to fall schedule to begin with: they currently mostly avoid 3 of the 4 other major US sports. The only major sport occurring during summer is baseball, and it’s significantly easier to miss 1 of the 162 MLB games than it is to miss 1 of the 17 NFL games. The schedule shift will see MLS playing through the majority of the NFL, NHL, and NBA seasons - and will still overlap with postseason baseball.
Secondary Competitions
A secondary impact of this change is a question of where the mid-season tournaments will fall. As it stands, the US Open Cup is played through summer, as is MLS and Liga MX’s League’s Cup. Does a calendar shift give MLS yet another excuse to skip the US Open Cup? Does the League’s Cup become a winter break tournament, played exclusively in southern cities? These questions are, as of yet, unanswered.
How does this effect USL?
USL is in an interesting spot with this change - and, outside of US Open Cup impacts, I can only see positives.
D1 Launches at the Perfect Time
MLS’s plan to start this in 2027 perfectly plays into USL’s hands. USL intends to launch their own first division in 2027 or 2028 - and as much as USL claims they aren’t trying to take MLS on, the competition between the two leagues is almost inevitable. But now, instead of launching a new D1 at the same time MLS is playing, USL-Premier (Premiership?) will launch into the American soccer landscape during MLS’s offseason. It’s not outrageous to suggest that many American soccer fans will at least tune in occasionally with nothing else to watch - USL will need to capitalize on the spotlight.
Summer TV Deal
On top of D1 launching, USL will now have June, July and most of August to itself. With MLS continuing to be shown on Apple TV (though now with more accessibility), USL could be the only global football league on American TV through the summer months. This instantly increases the value of the TV deal USL could get, a deal that will already be better than the current deal with the launch of USL D1.
More Attendance
USL also has an opportunity for expansion and attendance in MLS markets. Teams in MLS markets, like Orange County and the new Atlético Dallas and Brooklyn FC, have a unique opportunity to cash in on summer soccer crowds - especially families that may not want to take their kids to night games during the school year. USL expansion should also feel more comfortable moving into MLS cities. Colder locations like Portland, Seattle, the Bay Area, Chicago, and New York could easily support USL teams, especially without the summer competition. In fact, many of these locations already have USL-2 teams that could take advantage of this opportunity to move up to USL-1.
Two Leagues, Two Philosophies
What this all really comes down to is league philosophy. MLS is striving to become a more global league - MLS Commissioner Don Garber says as much:
“Aligning our schedule with the world’s top leagues will strengthen our clubs’ global competitiveness”
This isn’t really a move for fans, it’s a move for profit and global exposure. And there isn’t anything wrong with that - that’s MLS’s goal as a league. In a league where all clubs are owned by the league itself, MLS can make moves like signing Lionel Messi, who is in part being paid by the league’s Apple TV deal.
USL approaches things with a more grassroots and local philosophy. Each team is an independent club - no league ownership here. While this does limit USL in certain ways and opens clubs up to more risk of folding, it also enables clubs to make the best decisions for themselves, such as opening up their clubs to fan ownership or launching promotion/relegation.
If there is any benefit to the average American soccer fan here, it’s that the US will now have two first divisions, made up of a cumulative 44+ teams, with games happening 10 of the 12 months of the year. Even 20 years ago, that was unthinkable.
Let us know your thoughts - is this move good for MLS and/or USL? Vote below!
Former MLS fan, new USL fan. That's my vote. These changes were made for foreign streamers, not domestic fans, and the Apple execs are very upfront about that.
I used to support a team in each conference -- I liked conferences better than having a single table with imbalanced schedules -- but both of them are above the Mason-Dixon line. I used to travel in June to see games, but I'm not doing that in December. I also have longstanding commitments to NBA and NHL playoffs in late-Spring. Sorry, but I'm not choosing Pec over Luka, Oluwaseyi over Ant, or Vasquez over Wemby. And in Toronto I doubt they'll choose whatever disaffected Italians are still on the team over the Maple Leafs.