Sacramento vs Orange County: Tactical Analysis - A Season Undone by Mediocrity
2025 USL Playoffs, Round 1: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
Let’s cut to the chase: that was brutal. Republic crashed out of the playoffs after one of their worst penalty shootouts in memory, Roro was sent off in the final match of his career, and once again, the team couldn’t find a single goal when it mattered most. They mustered up just a single shot on goal in 120 minutes. That is just completely unacceptable in a playoff match.
Yes, there were a few bright sides. The defense held strong for 120 minutes. Vitiello continues to be a fantastic goalkeeper. We’ll briefly talk about those—but none of that matters if you can’t win games.
The first issue we have before the game even starts is just by looking at the starting XI. There are so many questions here that it’s hard to figure out where to start. Why is Justin Portillo, who played just seven games this season with only four starts, starting over Nick Ross, Luis Felipe, or Ryan Spaulding? Why are both Russell Cicerone and Khori Bennett, the two top strikers on the team, on the bench? The starting XI looks more like a mid-week match than it does a home game in a single-elimination tournament.
The very real answer to this may be “injuries,” but, because of the clubs refusal to communicate, fans are completely in the dark. Cicerone last played October 4th—from what we hear, he picked up a knock, but there has been no indication how serious it is. We’ve heard no other injury news regarding the rest of the players not chosen to start. But regardless of the potential injuries, this starting XI should have been good enough to win this game. Even then, the typical starters that came off the bench—Ross, Cicerone, Felipe, and Bennett—were given ample time on the pitch to make something happen and failed to do so. So what happened?
There are a lot of trends, both with this starting XI and the stats, that stand out as continuations of issues we’ve seen all season—but we’re not going to go into those today. We’ll have another article out later this offseason to look at this season’s tactics and trends as a whole and see if we can’t figure out what Collins and Co need to change before 2026. But for now, let’s dive into this final match of the 2025 season and see why Republic’s season came to an early close.
The Good:
Solid Defense
The biggest lone positive of the entire night was that Republic’s defense maintained what they’ve done all season—they stifled opposing offenses and nullified opposing threats. Orange County had 11 shots in 120 minutes. None of those shots were on target. Seven of the eleven shots were blocked by defensive players before they even got to goal. The other four missed the target and none of them were really even close. The Republic defense averaged a 7.42 player rating, and Lee Desmond was easily the highest-performing player of the match on either side with an 8.3. Just a totally complete defensive performance.
The Bad:
A Complete Inability to Hit the Target
The first issue that comes up is Republic’s inability to shoot on target. In 120 minutes, Republic managed just 1 shot on target out of 13 total shots. That is unacceptable for a playoff match, especially at home as the favorite. While OC similarly struggled, the majority of their shots (7 of 11) were blocked by Republic players. Republic does not have the same saving grace. Only four of Republic’s off-target shots were blocked—the other eight were simply not at the goal. Not a single shot from outside of the box required a save from the OC goalkeeper.
Ineffective Crossing
Even worse, Republic seems to have simply forgotten how to cross the ball. Only 4 of Republic’s 36 crosses found a Republic player on the end of them. To make matters worse, these were evenly spread throughout the game. So despite this being a clearly failing tactic, no attempt was made to change away from it. That’s completely bewildering. What it says is that Republic ran out of ideas.
A Failure to Generate Chances
So crossing wasn’t working, shooting from distance wasn’t work, what about playing up the middle? Well, Republic was completely ineffective there as well. With possession being basically even, how did Republic compare to Orange County in generating chances?
Republic led by a decent amount in each category, but only managed two extra shots. Orange County actually had more shots inside the box despite having eight fewer touches. Republic have been good all season at getting the ball into an attacking position, but they continue to have almost no ability to actually turn those positions into chances on goal.
The Post
As a final note, Republic hit the woodwork three times this match. This is a win if this ball is 2 inches to the right:
Sometimes the gods of soccer can be cruel—especially in Roro’s last game.
What Stood Out:
If you take just one positive out of this game, it’s this: Republic is not alone in the goal scoring woes. A growing trend in world football over the past few years has been the rise of the low-block, a tactic that sees teams focus on a deep and central defensive structure in their own third. In this tactic, teams rarely look to attack or even control the ball—the lone offensive outlet is usually one or two players up top that try to play quick counterattacks on long passes from their center backs or goalkeeper.
This tactic is typically utilized by the team that’s the underdog—and it was utilized in the first round to great effect. Over the last 10 years of USL playoffs, the total number of goals scored in the first round has never been lower than 19. This year there were just six. Only one game had more than a single goal. Four of the eight games were drawn 0-0 at the end of 90 minutes. Of the top 4 seeds, Louisville, Charleston, Tulsa, and Sacramento, only Tulsa won—and they needed extra time to do so.
Republic faced an Orange County team that utilized a sort of hybrid low-block; they didn’t sit all 11 men behind the ball, but defensively they packed the middle of their own third and were content to let Republic dribble around. Just look at how they’re stacked here in the box:
That’s six defensive players in or on the center of their own box. The wings are almost totally abandoned, and they have just two players ready to move into an attack position—the right most player and the striker off screen.
So how do you score on a low-block? Other than the opposition making a mistake, which is how Republic has scored many of their goals this season, there are really three main ways to do so. You either:
Shoot from distance, which becomes easier to execute because the opposition isn’t closing down the space
Cross the ball into the box and win it in the air, because you’re given the space to cross more accurately and you can isolate defenders in the air
Dribble past defenders on the wings, where you can then move towards goal from the side where the defense is not as compact
Compare those three tactics… and then look at what Republic did poorly, not just this game, but the entire season. They can’t score from range if they can’t shoot on target. They can’t score on crosses if they only have 4 successful crosses in 120 minutes. And Republic does not have the type of winger who is able to successfully dribble past defenders with any sort of regularity. Because Republic lacks the tools to beat a low-block, opposing teams have no incentive to open up their defensive positions, something that would give Sacramento other opportunities and ways to score.
Funny enough, one of Republic’s best chances of the night is immediately following the image of OC’s backline above—and it’s because Spaulding takes the ball outside, drives at goal, and then passes to into the box, one of the few times a Sacramento player is able to do so:
But Republic still can’t put the ball on target, especially when Orange County crashes their own net; there are just too many bodies in the way:
Republic’s season is over and with almost the exact same result as last season: a slow start, a hot summer, and then bounced by PK’s in the first round. Both Mark Briggs and Neill Collins utilized a defensive-heavy tactic, but the lack of goals is increasingly becoming a problem for a team that seeks to win their first trophy in over 10 years. Regularly being competitive is good and all, but fans want more than first round losses - which Republic has done 6 of the 11 times they’ve qualified for playoffs.
Republic need to retool this offseason and a major factor in their retooling must be players that give Republic a way to score goals. The club has had this problem for years; Republic has never had a player be even top 5 in the league in goals scored. Even Cameron Iwasa only reached top 6, albeit in back to back seasons. We’ll take a look another time over the offseason at the type of players Republic should bring in, but if the Quails go another season without an offensive overhaul, they’ll be looking at another season of mediocrity.