Sacramento vs El Paso: Tactical Analysis - Quails in Full Flight
07/12: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
Don’t call it a comeback! Republic are now fourth in the Western Conference after a really rocky start, and are only four points off the top with a game or two in hand. While the Player’s Shield is probably out of reach at this point, barring a second-half collapse of both Louisville and Charleston, Republic is squarely in the hunt for that coveted number one seed in the West. Funny how things can change in just a few weeks.
In the last three league games, Republic has outscored their opponents 7-0 while holding an average possession of just 43%. Remember that Sacramento wins ~58% of possible points when they have less than 50% possession, but only ~33% of possible points when they control the ball. A big part of this win streak and consistency is that Collins has seemingly found his core starting XI:
There has been occasional changes to this, such as Parano getting the nod on the wing and bumping Cicerone up to the top position, but this has basically become Collins’ go to look. The only difference this match was the absence of Gurr due to a previous head injury, though he did sub in for Edwards later in the match.
And that is an XI that looks good on paper and on the pitch. Depending on which stage of transition the play is in, this 3-4-3 can shift to either a 5-2-3 when under pressure or a 3-2-5 when on the attack:
Where the wing-back’s end up on the attack depends on if they are cutting outside or inside, but you get the general idea here. Press high and then counter as soon as they win the ball. You’ll notice that Willey and Ross often stagger a bit on the attack; Ross often plays as more of a central defensive midfielder, which gives Willey the freedom to press up a bit more. Compare their heat maps from this match:
This all leads to Republic finally finding their groove on both sides of the ball. Let’s dig in a bit deeper…
The Good:
When this Collins system works, it works really well. The whole idea here is to press the opposition back into their own half, without controlling the ball. Instead, Republic relies on winning the ball off the opposition in their own half, and then quickly turning that high press into a counterattack. Look at how the first goal plays out:
It’s a bit hard to see at the beginning here, but Republic pressed hard on a potential El Paso counter attack—this let them win the ball back, and then they already had numbers forward to turn that possession win into an attack on goal, with a great finish by Herrera. It’s exactly what you want to see—and the 40% possession numbers prove it. What we are also starting to see in the last few games is that chances are actually being finished. Benítez’s banger is exactly the type of chance that Republic should be getting on target - even if they aren’t all this pretty:
He just has so much space on the ball here after his dummy step to the left, and it’s why the wing-backs are so important when Republic is on the attack. Neither player involved with this play is a forward; Willey is a midfielder and Benítez is playing that defensive role on the wing. But in this system, those wing-backs become major parts of the Republic attack—because the opposing defense struggles to mark them as they rush up field.
Oh, and the team goal that I said was missing from last week? We got that too! Herrera is wonderfully unselfish here, and the dummy shot before he dribbles forward is an incredible move:
Parano puts a great finish on it, but Herrera makes this goal happen. And when the setup is every bit as good as the goal, you know the team’s firing on all cylinders. Speaking of Herrera, he has become a physical force up top, a role that Republic was sorely lacking earlier in the season. Despite playing striker, Herrera was involved with the most 50/50 duels of any player in the match (15), and came away with the most wins (10). To put it another way, two out of every three loose balls that Herrera went for, he won possession of. That’s one of the reasons that Republic feels so comfortable when they let the opposition control possession; they’re confident that they’ll be able to win the majority of loose balls. The Quails won 68% of all aerial duels in this match.
The Bad:
On the other side of things, there isn’t a lot to say (again). El Paso had two dangerous chances and both of them came about when Republic wasn’t pressing high. Fortunately for Sacramento, Danny Vitiello is a fantastic goalkeeper. This save should probably win save of the week:
But do you see the problem? The Locomotive player just has way too much time to set this shot up. It’s a world class save, but it’s also one you don’t want Vitiello to have to make. El Paso’s only other big chance came 15 minutes later, where Republic front three backed off considerably, which allowed the opposing center back to put an easy through ball into Republic territory. But, Republic also don’t press the player that receives that ball either…
…so he’s able to easily switch the field. And then you end up with a player wide open on the right side at the end of the clip, who ultimately puts a dangerous cross in. Vitiello comes up big again here, but it’s these little moments, where the defense loses track of one player, that can result in goals. Remember that Republic only has a 1-0 lead during both of these chances; if either of these go in, it’s a whole different ball game.
The only other interesting thing of note in this section was Republic’s struggle to play wide. They were just 4 for 12 on crosses, none of which resulted in goals, and 10 for 41 in the last 3 matches—none of the 7 goals in the last 3 matches have been from headers. They do actually rank seventh in the league in crossing percentage and third in accurate crosses per match, but they only have three headed goals on the season. That’s a bit of a weird outcome, so it’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses to see if Republic can turn more of those crossing chances into actual goals.
What Stood Out:
This is a great win though, a 3-0 that could have easily been 4-0. I’m still not sure how this didn’t go in:
But the Republic are creating a ton of chances while also keeping things clean on the defensive end of the pitch. El Paso has been sliding the last few weeks, but were still in fourth in the West before this match and are a strong team. If the Quails can keep this momentum going, they have a real shot of taking control of the Western Conference, something that no other Western team has seemed eager to do. It’s taken time, but Collins’ system is finally coming up to speed, and just in time to get USL win #100 of his career.
Republic's next match will be an interesting test; Lexington SC moved up to the Championship from League 1 this season, despite finishing ninth last year in the lower division. And yet, they haven’t lost in almost a month and sit just a point out of a playoff position in the West1. The two clubs have never played before and it’s a home match Sacramento need to win to keep this momentum going.
And yes, it is very, very weird that Lexington is in the Western Conference—they’re further east than Louisville!
Great write up Valor.