Sacramento at Tampa Bay: Tactical Analysis - A Tale of Two Halves
09/06: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
Neill Collins couldn’t have asked for a better first return back to Tampa Bay since departing as head coach of the Rowdies back in 2023. Collins left the Rowdies for English League One side Barnsley after eight years in Tampa Bay, which saw him go from player (2016-2018) straight to head coach (2018-2023), making two USL-C finals in his tenure. So it’s safe to say there is a lot of history here—Collins himself commented on it:
“A lot of people have asked me if I was looking forward to this match. And honestly, anyone who coaches knows that you only look forward to nights like this if you win.”
And win Republic did, a two-goal performance that featured really, a tale of two halves. Republic came out strong in the first half, playing a high press that dominated Tampa Bay with high pressure and ball control. The second half saw things fall off a bit—the high humidity, travel, and the looming USL Cup Semi-Final match on Wednesday had Republic transition into a low block that, while nervy at times, held firm.
Collins trotted out a Republic starting XI that was surprisingly strong, especially given the aforementioned Wednesday match. Outside of the traditional starting XI, only two changes were made—Djedje stepped into the back line for Timmer and Willey stepped into the right winger role for Parano. Djedje may be featured more often in the next few weeks; the signing of Cody Baker on loan from Seattle indicates that Timmer’s injury may have him out longer than expected.
I do want to focus on how Republic’s formation actually functioned. While the look of this match was similar to how Republic has played all season under Collins, both halves being so different really gives us a good opportunity to watch how the formation evolves in different situations. On paper, this formation looks like a 5-2-3 - but the beauty of it is that it can quickly transition to a 3-4-3 and then to a 3-2-5 in attack. Let’s look at the average positioning here to see what that means:
The average positioning shows a three at the back, and then kind of a clump in the middle—this is a virtue of both wing backs (#2 and #22) transitioning from defense to attack and back through out the game. You can also see how Ross (#19) sits a tad deeper than Roro (#8), and how both wingers (#20 and #11) are more central than a traditional winger role. Let’s look at that attack first, where you get a five at the front:
Here, you can see how both wing backs have pushed all the way up the field into attacking roles—and this means both wingers have pushed further inside, to allow the wingbacks to overlap. Often, this winger role is called either an “inverted winger” or an “inside forward.” And here is how the defense looks when the wingbacks push up:
You can clearly see how Ross drops into more of a DM position and, while we’ll discuss more of Roro’s role later, you can see him playing as a CM in a role often called a “pivot.” This is also where Republic can play in a 3-4-3 - the two wingbacks simply drop into the midfield to help collect passes from the defensive line when needed.
Now, let’s compare that to what Republic does when they’re on the defense:
Both wingbacks drop all the way back to have five at the back while both Roro (CM) and Ross (DM) drop in to form the second line of defense. An interesting thing we saw with Willey this match was that he often dropped in to the midfield from the winger position when Republic was under pressure—leading to a 5-3-2 formation.
The flexibility of this formation can’t be understated. The downside is that it needs wingbacks who are able to sprint the entire length of the field for the full 90, and midfielders who can link the defense and the attack—fortunately, Republic has both.
The Good:
Dominant 1st Half
Republic completely dominated the first half of the game. Here’s some quick-fire first half stats: 57% possession, 4 shots, only 2 shots allowed, 63 more passes than TB, and 58% of duels won. Just purely on a numbers bases, Republic controlled the half. Tampa Bay didn’t even get a shot off until the 41st minute—and neither shot they had in the half were on target. And Republic did that by playing their usual high press. Look how pressed up they are in the 23rd minute:
Playing a high press while having more possession is something we haven’t really seen out of Republic this season and it clearly worked.
Bend-but-don’t-break 2nd half
The second half was a different story, tactically. With Roro being subbed out at half for Parano, who then swapped positions with Willey, Republic seemed content to try and keep their legs as fresh as possible for Wednesday. The press completely drops off; look how far off the ball the defense is here:
Despite the pressure from the Rowdies, the humidity, and the tired legs, the defense held strong and Republic was able to implement a legitimate counter attacking threat—which they were unable to do when they played a low block against Loudoun and El Paso. This run by Cicerone is exactly the type of play you want when you’re in a low block:
It’s such a shame that this goes wide, but a deep ball over the top to a speedy striker is what Republic want to see more of when they sit back. Cicerone did get his goal though, in a similar counterattack that saw both he and Herrera showing off their speed:
What a run from Cicerone after 90 minutes on the pitch in humid weather—he’s been due for a goal for a while, and the Man of the Match had this to say after his one goal/one assist performance:
“I think I've been playing really, really well for a while now, and I haven't really had the numbers, so getting a goal and assist was really nice. RoRo [Lopez] have played so much together so I knew where he was going to be, and he had a great finish. And then I saw Seba [Herrera] get in behind, and it was heavy legs late in the game, but I knew with my speed I could beat those center backs. And then in the end, it was a tap in. So it was nice.”
Make your own luck
In many ways, Republic made their own luck tonight. While they did dominate the first half, we’ve so often seen that domination result in draws or losses. Republic led the Rowdies in xG 1.22 to 0.56, but 0.95 of that xG was just from Cicerone’s goal at the end. If you take out that goal, Republic had an xG of only 0.27—meaning Tampa had over double the expected amount of goals. A big part of that is Vitiello in goal, who made one punch and four saves, one of which was considered a “big save”:
This shot alone had a higher xG than five of Republic’s seven shots. Roro’s goal had an xG of just 0.02
This season, Republic has often found themselves on the receiving end of bad luck—or at least not good luck. Sometimes, you just need to create some of your own.
Roro is the Lynch Pin
Roro really controls the offensive movement for the team. Unironically, this clip from Ted Lasso shows how Roro plays: “Play through me, not to me.” The formation is different, but the idea is the same—Roro is in the center, where he is constantly directing traffic, stringing together quick 1-2 touch passes, and then finding space to do it all again. The following clip is a great example of this, though there are several more throughout the game
He receives the first pass and then quickly releases the ball, instantly finds more space to receive a pass again, and then gets the ball forward into a dangerous position with another one touch pass—and then he keeps driving forward to find more space. We’ll talk below about what happens when he comes out (spoiler: Republic lose most of their attacking bite), but when he is in, he’s the engine in the middle of the pitch that drives the offense in possession.
The Bad:
Nervy Second Half
That second half was nervy at best; Republic found themselves consistently under pressure from the whistle and didn’t start finding an outlet until after the 70th minute. Two key things happened here: first, Roro was subbed out for Parano, who then swapped positions with Willey. This isn’t actually a bad thing—the half time sub was likely to ensure that Roro is good to go for Wednesday, and Willey has been playing at center midfield all season. But secondly, Republic then coupled that with a significant drop off in pressing, which we highlighted earlier. This gave Tampa Bay much more space on the ball and resulted in Tampa going from two shots (zero on target) in the first half to nine shots (four on target) in the second half. If the Rowdies had been able to finish better on one or two chances, they likely tie the game sometime between the 45th and 70th minute.
Now, the reasons for Republic making both of these changes are pretty clear. There is a Cup semifinal Wednesday, it was hot and humid, and Republic already had a goal in hand while on the road. It very much seems like Republic would have been content with a draw if needed. But this became a very valuable lesson in what can happen if Republic lose both the press and Roro in the midfield at the same time—they can still win games, but the tactical look has to change.
Still Struggling on Corners
For a lack of other concerns (hard to complain about much else in a 2-0 win), one thing to bring up is Sacramento’s struggles on set pieces. While I don’t have the exact numbers, I can’t remember the last time Republic actually scored from a corner—they don’t have a single one in USL league play this season. It doesn’t help that Republic is averaging only 7.41 corners a game this season, the second worst rate in the league. Against Tampa, Republic had six corners—and none of them resulted in even a shot on target.
What Stood Out:
It was a game where many expected Collins and Co to save some legs for Wednesday. While that did eventually happen in the second half, Republic instead came out firing on all cylinders and came away with a 2-0 win in a very tough place to play. To make things even better, nearly every single Western Conference result of the weekend went Sacramento’s way. We covered the best outcomes in our new Western Conference Roundup—you can find last weeks here:
So Republic get the win, mostly save their legs, and are three points closer to chasing down Tulsa in first place, where Sacramento now trails by only six points with a game in hand and six games remaining. First in the West is still very much up for grabs. But, before Republic returns to Western Conference action with their first home match in a month, they will first set their eyes on the USL Cup semifinal this Wednesday the 10th against Rhode Island. Collins has the boys in Old Glory Red set up to win it:
“...the team is really clicking right now, but we're not content. Being in the Semifinal is an extremely massive deal… these three-game weeks are hard but we have the squad, we have the depth, and we have the mentality to get out there and do it.”
Ha, that was the exact sequence I was talking about re the beautiful passing.