Western Conference Roundup - Match Day 29
Welcome back to the Western Conference Roundup, the weekly article where we take a look around the Western Conference to see how each team did last week, what it means for Sacramento, and the best possible outcomes for the following week. I missed last week due to a work commitment, and we’ve had some movement in the table in the meantime, so let’s jump right in!
First, let’s take a look at the Western Conference table after Match Day 28, leading into Match Day 29:
1) FC Tulsa - 1-1 draw at Oakland
Next Match: Away at Indy XI (9th in the East)
At one point in the last few weeks, Tulsa held first place by 9 points - that gap is down to 6, and Tulsa now has an extra game played. A series of dropped points to lower sides since the end of August has killed a lot of the momentum Tulsa had built up, and they’ve won just 2 of their last 5 matches. For a middle of the table team that’s pretty solid, but it’s not the performance level of a team hoping to lock up First in the West. Tulsa may have already clinched a playoff spot, but they will need to get back to winning ways to cement a home playoff game. A match against an Indy team desperately fighting for a playoff spot is up next - and the rest of the West is hoping that Tulsa will continue to drop points.
Best Republic Outcome: FC Tulsa loss at Indy
2) Sacramento Republic - 2-0 win at Colorado Springs
Next Match: Away at Monterey (12th in the West), Home against OC(9th in the West)
A 2-0 win on the road in Colorado helped Republic pull back within 6 points of Tulsa, with a game in hand. Republic’s ability to catch Tulsa is not completely in their hands - but a continuation of winning ways keeps the pressure on Tulsa, who keep dropping points to lower sides.
It’s a really busy coming week for Sacramento though, who have an away battle with last place Monterey on Saturday before hosting on-the-bubble Orange County midweek. To top all that off, Republic then hosts the USL Jägermeister Cup Final next Saturday. Wednesday’s game against OC is probably the most dangerous match - OC is on the bubble and needs the points desperately, while Republic will probably be resting some legs before a (Jägermeister) shot at glory. The bright side of the busy week is that both opponents are weaker sides. Taking all 6 points is absolutely possible.
Best Republic Outcome: As always, a win. Two of ‘em.
3) New Mexico - 1-1 draw at Monterey, 2-1 win vs Colorado Springs
Next Match: Home against Lexington (5th in the West)
Overall, not a bad week if you’re a New Mexico fan! While The Black and Yellow did drop 2 points to last place Monterey, a midweek come-from-behind win over Colorado boosted New Mexico up to 3rd in the West, where they sit in a home playoff position by 2 points. Next up is a home match against 5th place Lexington who have won 3 of their last 5 matches. Everyone in the West will be hoping the two teams split the points.
Best Republic Outcome: New Mexico draw against Lexington
4) San Antonio - 3 - 1 win vs Orange County
Next Match: Home against Birmingham (11th in the East)
San Antonio is getting hot at just the right time. After going 5 matches with one total goal scored, they’ve followed that up with back-to-back multi-goal performances, scoring eight goals between their last 2 matches. Barring a complete collapse from Tulsa or Sacramento, a top two finish is out of reach at this point - but a home playoff game is not. A home match, their second to last, is up next, as they host a Birmingham team that has all but been mathematically eliminated from contention in the East. The rest of the West will be hoping that San Antonio lose their scoring boots once again.
Best Republic Outcome: San Antonio loss against Birmingham
5) Lexington - 1-0 win at Detroit
Next Match: Away at New Mexico (3rd in the West)
Lexington are now 3-1-1 in their last 5, and have surged up the table from 7th just 3 weeks ago. When Lexington joined the USL - Championship this last offseason, after finishing 9th in USL - League One and missing the playoffs, many speculated that Lexington would heavily struggle at the Championship level. Instead, “the Greens” find themselves just one point off a home playoff spot with 5 games remaining. Detroit actually dominated the game against Lexington this week and Lexington only had a single shot on target, but a strong defensive performance limited Detroit to only 2 shots on target themselves despite 16 total shots. If Lexington is able to host a home playoff game, eking out wins despite being the lesser team on paper will be what got them there. Up next is 3rd place New Mexico, who are coming off a midweek match. Lexington will hope to use that to their advantage, while the rest of the West will want them to split the points.
Best Republic Outcome: Lexington draw at New Mexico
6) El Paso - 2-0 loss vs Charleston Battery
Next Match: Home against Rhode Island (8th in the East), Home against Oakland (10th in the West)
El Paso is now in a major slide. They’ve now won just two of their last 10 USL league matches, have lost 3 straight, and have just 4 points in their last 5 matches. Somehow they still sit in 6th, but while spots 3-4-5 are all within a point, El Paso’s 3 points back of 6th. They do have a game in hand, but the recent slide doesn’t give much confidence that the extra game will make the difference. They now host a hungry Rhode Island team that is 1 point above the playoff line and then host an Oakland team fighting to get their heads above water. The West will be hoping El Paso continues to slide.
Best Republic Outcome: El Paso loss against Rhode Island, El Paso Draw against Oakland
7) Phoenix Rising - 2-2 draw vs Loudoun
Next Match: Home against Oakland (10th in the West)
Phoenix, somehow, are draw merchants. They’ve now drawn their last 4 games and 7 of their last 10. They have 11 draws total, 3 more than any other team in the West. Yes, it’s gotten them points, but the continual lack of a full 3 points has seen them drop from 5th to 6th to 7th in back-to-back weeks. The problem isn’t that they aren’t scoring, they’ve scored 7 goals in the last 4 games, it’s that they can’t keep goals out. Up next is an Oakland Roots team that still hasn’t eclipsed 30 goals on the season; somehow, Phoenix needs to find a way to score more goals than their opponent. Everyone in the West below Phoenix will be hoping for a draw, while everyone above them will be hoping for an Oakland win.
Best Republic Outcome: Phoenix draw against Oakland
8) Colorado Springs - 2-0 loss at Sacramento, 2-1 loss vs New Mexico
Next Match: Home against Hartford (5th in the East)
This week was a hard pill to swallow if you’re a Colorado Springs fan - 2 losses in 4 days, both against teams above you in the table where you desperately needed points. Colorado is down to just 2 points of breathing room above the playoff line, and their schedule doesn’t get any easier from here: the average position of their remaining 5 opponents is 5th, and that’s with an 11th place Vegas pulling the average down; other than the Vegas game, the average position is third. They’re probably the most likely team to drop below the playoff line. On the bright side, 3 of the remaining 5 games are at home, so there is certainly a chance for some magic from the defending champs.
Best Republic Outcome: Colorado Springs loss against Hartford
9) Orange County - 3-1 loss at San Antonio
Next Match: Home against Charleston (2nd in the East), Away at Sacramento (2nd in the West)
Orange County now hasn’t won since the middle of August and have allowed a whopping 13 goals in their last 5 matches. The defense just isn’t there, and now they go into back-to-back games against 2nd place teams when they host Charleston before traveling to Sacramento in the same week. OC is only 2 points out of a playoff position, but the defense will need to wake up if they have any hope of upsetting either 2nd place team. On the bright side, Orange County has a game in hand - even if they lose both of these games, their chances of overtaking either Colorado or Phoenix are still decent enough to keep the dream alive.
Best Republic Outcome: OC loss against Charleston, OC loss against Sacramento
10) Oakland- 1-1 draw vs Tulsa
Next Match: Away at Phoenix (7th in the West), Away at El Paso (6th in the West)
In what is an impressive upset, Oakland managed to pull out a draw with 1st place Tulsa to keep themselves vaguely near the playoff line. They still trail by 5 points with 6 matches remaining, and haven’t beaten a playoff positioned team since their win over Detroit on July 5th, but there is still a chance for them to squeeze into that coveted 8th spot. Unfortunately for Oakland, they now face a 2 match week where they will travel away to both Phoenix and El Paso, two teams that need three points to solidify their own positions. However, with both teams sliding, this could be a chance for Oakland to show what they’re made of. I don’t want to say their season is fully over if they don’t get at least 4 points out of this week, but anything less will make things extremely difficult if not impossible in the final 4 matches.
Best Republic Outcome: Oakland draw at Phoenix, Oakland draw at El Paso
11) Las Vegas- 3-1 loss at Louisville
Next Match: Away against Pittsburgh (6th in the East)
Well, a loss to Louisville isn’t the end of the world. Louisville is pretty comfortably going to win the Player’s Shield and asking Vegas to beat them on their own turf is ambitious for even the most hardcore of Light’s supporters. The real problem is that Vegas is 6 points off a playoff spot with just 5 games remaining and have only won 1 match in their last 10. The only hope here for the Lights is that their remaining games are on the lighter side - the average positioning of their remaining 5 opponents is 9th. There is still, technically, a chance here.
Best Republic Outcome: Las Vegas loss at Pittsburgh
12) Monterey Bay- 1-1 draw vs New Mexico
Next Match: Home against Sacramento (2nd in the West)
As nice as a home draw against a 3rd place team is, Monterey’s season is all but over. Not only are they in last and 6 points off the playoff line, but they’ve played one or two games more than every single other team in the West. With 4 games remaining, they’ll need a third of their season’s wins just to have a chance to qualify for playoffs. 3 of 4 remaining games are at home, so maybe they can beat up Vegas and Tampa Bay to give themselves a chance?
Best Republic Outcome: Monterey loss against Sacramento
What to Watch
As the season continues to wind down, the playoff race is heating right up. Only one Western Conference team has clinched a playoff spot (Tulsa) and, mathematically, no teams have been eliminated. The West truly is wild as well; just 22 points separate first and last in the West, while 39 points separate first and last in the East.
In the West, the big match up of the week is 3rd place New Mexico hosting 5th place Lexington. Fortunately for Republic fans, this match is at 3pm on Sunday, making it watchable without missing out on Sacramento’s game on Saturday night. Out East, Detroit hosting Louisville is going to be a fun one at 4pm on Saturday, as one of the most hardcore fan bases in USL host USL’s most perennial title chasers.
What matches are you looking forward to this week? Let us know in the comments!