The West Is Wide Open, and Republic FC Controls More of Its Fate Than It Seems

Seven matches. Twenty-one available points. And almost no separation in the Western Conference.

Following Saturday’s 1-0 win over Detroit City FC, Sacramento Republic FC sits fifth with 36 points from 23 matches. Republic is level with fourth-place FC Tulsa, sixth-place Orange County and seventh-place San Antonio. Colorado Springs is only one point ahead, while Lexington, Phoenix and Las Vegas sit two, three and four points behind Sacramento respectively.

Fifth place, however, doesn’t completely reflect Sacramento’s position.

Republic has a game in hand on Colorado Springs, Orange County and San Antonio and still plays several of the teams it is directly competing against. Sacramento’s final seven are San Antonio at home, New Mexico away, Las Vegas at home, Tulsa away, Colorado Springs at home, El Paso away and Oakland at home.

The rest of the conference won’t exactly have a clear runway either. El Paso still faces Tulsa, Lexington, Orange County and Sacramento. New Mexico plays Colorado Springs, Sacramento, Tulsa, Phoenix and San Antonio. Tulsa has El Paso, New Mexico, Sacramento and Lexington remaining. Orange County and San Antonio meet on the final day of the season. Someone has to drop points.

Taking the current table, games in hand, remaining schedules and recent form into account, our projection gives Sacramento roughly a 96% chance of reaching the postseason and about a 49% chance of earning a top-four seed and a home playoff match.

The probabilities are less about predicting an exact finishing position than illustrating how open the conference remains. Nearly three quarters of Sacramento’s projected outcomes fall between third and sixth. There is a legitimate path to a home playoff match, but very little room for a prolonged stumble.

So what might the final seven actually look like?

The number to circle is 48 points.

Sacramento needs 12 from the remaining 21 to get there. Three wins, three draws and one loss would do it.

A reasonable route could be wins over San Antonio, Las Vegas and Oakland at Heart Health Park, draws against New Mexico, Tulsa and Colorado Springs, and a loss at first-place El Paso.

That wouldn’t require Sacramento to suddenly dominate the conference. It would essentially mean taking care of the most winnable home matches and continuing to be difficult to beat elsewhere.

With the teams around Sacramento repeatedly playing one another down the stretch, 48 points should put Republic firmly in the fight for a top-four seed.

There is a more ambitious possibility.

Colorado Springs is only one point ahead of Republic despite playing an additional match. Tulsa is level on points through the same number of games. Sacramento still plays both.

Four wins, two draws and one loss over the final seven would add 14 points and put Republic at 50.

If Sacramento can beat San Antonio, Las Vegas and Oakland while taking four or more points from the Tulsa and Colorado Springs matches, third place becomes a very realistic target.

Second is another matter. New Mexico already has 41 points from only 22 matches, giving United both a five-point advantage and a game in hand on Sacramento. El Paso sits seven points clear at the top.

Republic can mathematically chase both, but third looks like the realistic ceiling without a significant collapse above them.

Then there is the version Sacramento will desperately want to avoid.

Republic is unbeaten in six, but four of those matches have ended in draws. Sacramento has scored just six times during that stretch while allowing four. The defense has made Republic extremely difficult to beat, but draws have also prevented the club from creating meaningful separation.

If that continues and Sacramento collects only seven or eight points from its next six matches, the October 24 finale against Oakland could suddenly become much more important.

A finish around 43 or 44 points would likely leave Sacramento looking over its shoulder at Lexington, Phoenix, Las Vegas and potentially others while simultaneously watching results elsewhere.

That’s the danger of a conference this tight. A couple of draws that look acceptable individually can become costly very quickly.

Which makes Sunday against San Antonio one of the biggest matches remaining.

The clubs enter level on 36 points, but San Antonio has played one more game. A Sacramento victory creates three points of separation while Republic retains its game in hand. A loss immediately allows another playoff competitor to jump ahead.

There is no magic number yet, but the picture is becoming clearer.

Around 43 or 44 points could mean a Decision Day fight. Around 47 likely puts Sacramento safely into the postseason. Get to 48 or 49 and a home playoff match becomes realistic. Reach 50, and third place could be there for the taking.

Sacramento doesn’t need to win seven straight. The rest of the Western Conference schedule makes that unnecessary because the teams surrounding Republic are going to take points from one another.

What Sacramento cannot afford is another month filled almost entirely with draws.

For all of the dropped points and frustration that have defined portions of this season, Republic enters the final seven with something every club wants in September.

Control over where it finishes.