Tactical Analysis: A Look at Sacramento’s First Quarter of the Season

Republic is just about a quarter of the way through the season. Where are they at? And where should they be? Let’s dive in.

The Lineup:

Sacramento has just crossed over the first quarter mark of the season, having played 9 of the 34 USL games scheduled—8 out of 30 league games and 1 out of 4 USL Jägermeister Cup games. Through those 8 league games, they’ve established a record of 2-4-2, with 10 goals for and 10 goals against, and sit at 8th in the West with 10 points. While that is technically a playoff place (barely), they are only three points off the bottom of the table. On the other side of things, they are also only six points off first in the West after this past weekend’s results.

More importantly, this year is tied for the second worst start in Republic history. The worst eight game start in club history remains 2021, where the club won their first two matches and then went winless through their next nine. That year, the club had seven points through eight games, and it remains the only season in Sacramento’s history where the club did not qualify for playoffs. However, this season mimics more closely 2017’s season, where the club similarly had 10 points through 8 games, with a record of 3-1-3. A mid-season resurgence in wins saw the 2017 club climb the table, but they barely qualified for playoffs. Will we see something similar this season?

---

---

The bright side is that the next eight games have a chance to be an easier run than the first eight. The first eight opponents Republic faced currently have an average of 11.375 points. The next eight games? An average of only 10.625 points, and that average is pulled up by a game against first place San Antonio. Three games against teams with a single win, Lexington SC, Rhode Island FC, and a reunion with Mark Briggs against Birmingham Legion FC, provide opportunities for Republic to gain ground in the West.

So what has been going on this season? Well, let us start by taking a look at how Republic is playing. In his first season with Sacramento, Head Coach Neill Collins has Republic playing in a fairly standard 3-4-3 formation, a formation punctuated by a high press and a heavy reliance on fit and active wing-backs. Here is a simplified example on how that formation can play out when in possession:

The most important pieces of this formation are the right and left wing backs (#5 and #6 here). They have to cover the entire outside length of the pitch; as the midfielder (#8) moves up-field with the ball, they provide an outlet out wide for play, where they can then cross the ball into the strikers, cross the ball to the opposite post to the opposite side wing-back, or play it back to the midfielder. Alternatively, if the midfielder plays the ball into the striker (#10) instead, they are responsible for either being an outlet for the striker holding the ball, or making a run in behind the opposing defense to put a shot on target. You can see this exact attacking look in this shot against New Mexico United in the season opener, with Gurr (#2) playing right wing-back and crashing the back post from a ball in the corner:

On the other side of things though, the wing-backs also have to be crucial to the defensive side of the game. Look how those same wing-backs have to fall into the defensive backline if an opposing attack is on their side:

The wing-back (#5) has to drop all the way back in to make a back four, which also requires the center backs to shift over to accommodate. There has been a few times that this has caused issues for Republic, especially on the counter; this situation from the match against Orange County SC comes to mind:

Neither wing-back can drop back fast enough to deal with the counter attack, the three center backs get stretched, and the chaos in the box leads to several unmarked men and an Orange County goal.

All that being said, Republic has been dealing with injuries and personnel problems to start the season. While Gurr has been consistently placed into the right wing-back role for all but one match, Collins’ has had to utilize a combination of Wanner, Benítez, and Spaulding on the left side to mixed results. Benítez, a pretty clear top choice for the position, has instead filled in for the series of injures to Sacramento's centerbacks—leading to on and off starts in the backline from the start of the season.

It was not until the Oakland Roots SC game that Collins’ was able to roll out his likely preferred starting XI, with Desmond and Roro returning from injuries:

---

The Good:

It has not been all bad to start the season though, despite the club’s record and lack of wins. In fact, there are several metrics that point to Sacramento simply getting unlucky.

Let us get into the weeds and talk about xG for a minute, or “expected Goals”. For the uninitiated, expected Goals is a statistic that measures the likelihood of a specific shot resulting in a goal, from 0 to 1. Note that this is just the likelihood; an xG of 0.25 essentially means a 25% chance of a shot being a goal. For example, a shot from range and into traffic may have a very low xG, but still go in; likewise, a one-on-one with the keeper may have a high xG, but still be saved. The total xG of a match is then usually calculated and compared—an xG of say, 2.2, means a team would have been statistically expected to score at least two goals in that match. If they scored fewer, they were likely unlucky, and if they scored more, they were likely lucky.

Sacramento has the second best expected Goals (xG) against in the league at 1.08 per game—only Detroit is better. That is to say, the Republic are the second best in the league at minimizing quality scoring chances against them. Additionally, they are averaging 1.30 xG/game—but only scoring 1.25 goals/game. So, they are creating more quality chances that they would expect to finish than they are actually finishing. Teams that have a higher xG for than they do an xG against, or, in statistical terms, teams with a positive xG difference, would statistically expect to win more of their games than not—and the Republic’s xG difference is 0.22, good for fifth in the entire league!

And a few of the other statistics we can see really reflect this as well. As a squad, Republic has the fourth best average player rating in the league. Cicerone specifically is actually the fourth best player in the league currently based on individual player rating. And, while we will get into the defensive issues later on, Sacramento really does have one of the best defenses in the entire league… through the first 75 minutes of each match. They are tied with Tulsa for 2nd in fewest goals allowed through 75 minutes with 5. Only Louisville is better, who have only allowed four goals total all season.

And the high press the Republic utilizes up top really helps with this. This moment in the game against Louisville really exemplifies how the high press can help break up dangerous counters:

We have talked about this before, but this is how this Republic team wants to play in transition and on defense. By pressing high up the field like this, they can take the bite out of the opposition’s counterattack—and force them to play over the top. But that’s what Republic wants teams to do; they have one of the highest tackle and duel success rates in the league, so defending against passes over the top is not a huge deal.

So the numbers are there for the club to be playing really well, but the record does not reflect that. So what’s gone wrong so far?

---

The Bad:

Let’s start on the offensive side of the ball, where Republic is among the worst in the league in several statistics. The worst offender, as we have been discussing all season, is shots on target. Sacramento is only getting 38.40% of their shots actually on frame, which is good for fourth worst in the entire league. It is really hard to score when you are not even shooting at the goal. Let’s look at a few of those shots, where a trend becomes immediately clear.

Here is one against Oakland:

Against Tulsa:

And against Louisville:

All of these shots are miles out, with tons of traffic in front of goal. Sacramento has the fifth most shots in the league, and it is because they are regularly pulling the trigger when they have no business doing so. Sacramento has 2.7% of their shots from outside the box that have resulted in goals (1/36), while 12.3% of their shots from inside the box have resulted in goals (9/73).

These numbers combine to then give the Quails the fourth-worst conversion rate in the league, at 9%. If you take out the long shots, that 12.3% from inside the box would instantly make them the second best in the league.

Let us now flip over to the defensive side of the game where things actually have not been bad; we discussed earlier that Republic is actually tied for the second-best defense in the league through 75 minutes. The real problem settles in after the 75th minute—where they have conceded half of their total conceded goals this season (5/10). Conceding this late has had Republic drop points constantly. They have dropped six points from winning positions—all in three games where they would settle for a draw. That is fourth worst in the league in points dropped from winning positions, and does not count games like the one against Tulsa where a draw was turned into a defeat at the last moment.

A big part of this problem is Sacramento seems to stop pressing midway through the second half. Part of this could be sub choice; for example, look at Sacramento’s average position both before and after the subs came on during the game against Phoenix:

Data provided by Sofascore

The defensive line dropped way back, and Sacramento conceded the equalizer in the 78th minute. The lack of pressing allows the opposition to pass with ease through Sacramento’s lines, where issues with marking that we discussed in the formation become a problem, like this play against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC:

Where a Colorado player is totally free to receive the ball in Sacramento’s box on the far side of the pitch. And look what minute this play is—after the 75th.

It really seems like a combination of tired legs, poor subs, and tactical mismanagement is causing the late goals. The tired legs struggle to keep up the high press that the tactic demands, and so the attackers and midfielders fall back a bit to keep pace with the game. This means Collins’ has to make subs to get fresh legs on—but the substitutes are performing at a much lower level than the starters. Republic starters are averaging a player rating of 6.99, good for second in the league. But the subs are averaging a player rating of just 6.69—a number that would be dead last in the league for average player rating.

This means that Collins’ is forced to tweak the tactic to have the formation sit deeper, which has not been working. Republic needs more depth—they have plenty of players to fill bench slots, but they don’t have quality depth that can step onto the pitch late in the game and make a difference. That could change now that players are returning from injury, but it is also something the club is hopefully looking to improve in the roster over the summer.

---

What Stood Out:

So where does that leave the Republic going forward for the rest of the season? Well, it is tricky. Several of the stats show that Sacramento is getting fairly unlucky and probably deserve an extra win or two. At the same time, this is a team that many pundits picked to win the West outright and at least make the Western Conference finals; finishing sixth or seventh and bouncing out of the playoffs in the first round is hardly what Republic’s new owners envisioned when they moved on from Mark Briggs and paid Neill Collins’ release clause to get him from Raith Rovers FC in Scotland.

Collins’ seat is definitely not hot yet—we still need to see how this team performs with a now healthy Lee Desmond, Rodrigo López, and Nick Ross, and to see if the club makes any midseason additions. But if things continue, fans with high expectations of one of the USL’s flagship clubs will certainly be asking ownership for answers.

---