Sacramento vs. San Antonio: Tactical Analysis
06/14: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
Republic come away with a nil-nil draw. Another one of those games where the general mindset is probably “well, I’ll take the point I guess,” in a season full of games with exactly that attitude. It’s hard to say that Republic’s recent results against teams not based out of Las Vegas are bad, but it’s also impossible to say that Republic is good. This is a team that is the epitome of mediocre: just good enough to keep a playoff spot, but never good enough to rise up the table.
And that’s not what this club strives to be, which is why I, like many of you, are frustrated with the start of this season. In a weird way, it feels like the team is one or two pieces away from being competitive. This starting XI is a perfect example. Republic look very strong at the back; Lee Desmond’s return from injury has resulted in the club only giving up 2 goals in the 5 league games he’s started since his return. Compare that to *8* goals allowed in the 5 league games where he was out injured. Desmond, Kleemann, and Timmer, with Vitiello behind them, continue to anchor Republic’s defensive structure. The midfield is also starting to take shape - Benitez and Ross appear to be the duo of choice, starting their 3rd straight game together in the middle, easily the most consistent streak at midfield that the club has had this season. Add in Gurr and Spaulding on the wings and Republic have a solid midfield structure.
The real problem is up top, where I’m afraid we’ve hit the “see what sticks” phase of tactics. Parano and Herrera continue to dominate starts, but this week Collins tried out Felipe as a sort of holding player in the center attacking mid, shifting the team from a 3-4-3 to a 3-4-1-2. I can see the theory here; Felipe is 6’1”, has some good muscle on him, can be creative, and isn’t afraid to dive in or play physically. Ideally, he can disrupt the defensive line or hold up play long enough for Parano or Herrera to get into space, and his passing can help link the backline and midfield to the strikers. In practice… that didn’t happen. Felipe was actually the top rated player on the night (with a 7.8 rating according to SofaScore), but that 7.8 didn’t lead to any goals. Here is his heat map:
Really solid positioning for playing essentially as a center attacking midfielder (CAM) - but the finishing just wasn’t there from the strikers up top. What is Republic really missing then? Let’s dive in.
The Good:
The defense has been stellar since Desmond returned to fitness. As mentioned previously, Republic has only allowed 2 goals against in the last 5 games against USL competition. I do think a big part of this is Desmond, who not only is averaging a 7.44 player rating over the last 5 matches, but has also had the captain’s armband the last 3 matches. The defensive stiffness has noticeably increased too. As a reminder, Republic play a three in the back that can quickly switch to a five at the back when under pressure, with both the right and left midfielder dropping into the backline. This has given Republic some fits earlier in the season; the Orange County game in particular saw Republic regularly struggle to get all 5 guys into a solid line to set the offside line. But early in this match, Republic set a pretty solid line even while on the run:
It’s not perfect, but both wing-backs have dropped into the line and Republic is able to account for every attacking San Antonio player.
On the other side of things, while the offense was once again unproductive on the night, I still do think this is a penalty; watching it back, I’m shocked this isn’t called:
Full 2 handed push in the box? Parano sells it a bit, sure, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a foul.
The connection between the midfield and the attack wasn’t a problem either. We already touched on Felipe playing that CAM role really well earlier, but to show an example, this build up play happens because he’s playing that CAM role:
This leads to one of Sacramento’s three shots on target on the night. The ability to bring that ball down and then lay off a perfectly weighted pass into Gurr’s path is elite. Speaking of those shots, the numbers are looking better! Just under 43% (3/7) shots on target is a pretty good ratio for Republic to be sitting at. They weren’t *good* shots, but at least they’re at the goal!
And finally, Republic did play this match how they wanted to play it. They only held 38% possession, but as we discussed last week, less possession leads to better numbers in Collins’ system. Despite being out-possessed so heavily, Republic had more shots on target than San Antonio and an equal number of shots in the box. They had almost double the number of touches in the opposition’s box. Most of SAFC’s possession was in the midfield or their own half. So all the build up numbers were there, it was just the final touch that was missing.
If you want to read more about how Republic prefer to not have possession, I discussed that last week:
The Bad:
So the game went according to plan, the defense kept the clean sheet at home, and Republic got a point. So what went wrong? Well, Republic’s offense continues to be woefully inadequate. Unlike early in the season where Republic prioritized quantity over quality in their shot choice, Republic have continued to drop their total number of shots per game to a more reasonable level, trying to make sure the shots they do get are on target. That happened tonight; 3 for 7 for shots on target isn’t bad. The issue is that those shots on target weren’t exactly what I would call quality. San Antonio seemed content to put men behind the ball despite holding onto the possession, likely content to earn a draw on the road, and Republic continued to lack the playmaker to unlock opposing defenses.
There’s nothing for me to really show here, as it’s hard to show a lack of ability, but the quality in the final third just really continues to elude this club. Republic have never been a high scoring team; but how far off the norm is that? Well, USL Championship regularly sees at least 2-3 players a season with 20+ league goals scored. Four of the last five teams to win the USL title had a player that hit this 20 goal mark. The lone exception is San Antonio's 2022 run that saw 16 different players combine to score 54 goals.
Now let’s compare that to Sacramento - who have never had a player break 20 league goals in a season in club history. The closest anyone has gotten was when club legend Cameron Iwasa scored 17 goals and 16 goals in back to back seasons; but even those numbers fall short of the 25 goals and 22 goals scored by the top scorers in those seasons. Republic’s most goals in a season as a team is 51, still under that mark San Antonio set when they won the league. So how does that stack up to this year? Well, currently Herrera and Cicerone lead the club with three goals scored in league play. That puts them each on pace to score eight goals this season. This wouldn’t be the first time that number has been so low; since 2019, Republic has only had a player break double digit league goals in a season three times
I’m not sure if this is a coaching problem, a scouting problem, or a priorities problem. It is no secret that Sacramento under Mark Briggs was a defense-first team. While that did help carry the team to the playoffs, the lack of offensive firepower is what continually led the team to be eliminated from contention year over year. Republic hasn’t had an all-league starting XI forward since Cameron Iwasa in 2019; and, with all respect to Cam, his numbers were great but never league leading.
This club really needs an out and out goal scorer who can come up big week in and week out, and acquiring one should be high on the summer priority list if the club has any hope of continuing to be one of the league’s standout teams. I almost wonder if the Republic front office hasn’t adjusted their priorities, while the rest of the league has - teams with offensive firepower are the one’s winning the league, not the defensive stalwarts.
What Stood Out:
But overall, this 5 game home-stand wasn’t terrible for Sacramento. 2 wins, 2 draws, and a loss, for a total of 8 out of a possible 15 points, is not bad for a middle of the pack team. It is also not great though, either, especially when they end it with 120+ straight minutes without a goal. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence before 4 straight road games, where Sacramento will fly roughly 7000 miles over the course of two and a half weeks. These 4 road games are going to be a major test, one that Republic needs to be ready for if they have any hope of climbing the table. None of the 4 teams are particularly strong, with Rhode Island being the best positioned at 6th in the East, but with 2 more games played than most of the teams behind them. These are all very winnable games, which Sacramento has to take advantage of. With the defense looking solid, the real question is if Republic can find someone to score.
It all starts with a reunion with Mark Briggs in Alabama when Republic play Birmingham tonight.