Sacramento vs Monterey Bay: Tactical Analysis - A Disappointing Draw
03/21: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
Ouch. Despite being the more dominant team for the vast majority of the match, Republic came away with just one point and was lucky to even get that; former Republic player Nick Ross’s chance to grab all 3 points from the penalty spot late was denied by Danny Vitiello. It’s important to realize that Republic also played 120 minutes just 3 days prior in the Open Cup and most starters saw significant minutes. Tired legs were almost certainly a factor in the late-game breakdown.
The Starting XI saw only one change from what we saw in the first two league
games—and that was Blake Willey stepping in for Memo Rodríguez. As usual, the club has been tight-lipped about Memo being out; the broadcast mentioned he was injured, but gave no indication to the severity or a timeline for return. There was no indication he was even hurt until the Starting XI was released. Speaking of injuries, also out again was Jack Gurr, who has yet to make his 2026 debut—though a few folks on Reddit did mention seeing him in the stands.
Injury concerns aside, it was fun to see Willey take on that 9 role in the offense and the entire formation played as advertised. But what did we see that stood out?
The Good:
Ajago Stays Hot
A 3-goal week for Forster Ajago is exactly what you want to see from your starting striker, as Ajago scored twice against El Farolito and once against Monterey Bay. He’s now averaging a goal every 92.3 minutes—that would be an elite pace if he could keep that up throughout the season. This goal against Monterey is special because he both creates it and finishes it:
He both wins the header and the foot race while staying onside, before cleanly slotting the shot through the keeper’s legs. There is a brief moment in there where his touch gets away from him, but he stays composed and gets the goal. Just this week, he’s scored half the goals he did in 20 appearances for Lexington last season. And we’d be remiss not to mention Arturo’s one-touch assist, what a great pass.
Still Undefeated
Republic remains 1 of 9 teams in USL without a defeat. In 4 games (3 in league play) they have 5 goals, only 1 goal allowed, and a combined expected goals (xG) of 4.6 while their xG against is only 3.05. This is a very good start to the year, especially after kicking off against 2 tough teams, Tulsa and Lexington. I have high hopes going forward, especially because Republic don’t play any truly “elite” teams for the next few weeks, giving them time to work out any issues.
Dominant Stats
Republic genuinely dominated this game. Sure, the xG was 0.81 to 1.38… but that includes the PK. From open play, it was 0.81 to 0.52. Republic averaged 56.8% possession and still haven’t had less than 50% of the ball this season. They also won 52% of ground duels and 64% of aerial duels. Obviously the final score matters more, but it is good to know that Republic played and controlled the game, they just didn’t finish it.
Danny Vitiello
Arguably the point Republic did get belongs to Danny Vitiello. The USL’s best every goalkeeper is now 8 for 15 on penalty saves in his career. I can’t express how absurd that is—elite keepers usually hover around 30-40%. So I’ll just leave this beauty of a save here:
The Bad:
Slow Starts
Republic have struggled to get the offense going in the first half of any game this season. Of the 5 goals Republic have scored, none of them have been scored in the first half. Even looking at when they’re shooting, they have 9 total first half shots through the first 3 league games… and 16 total second half shots. In fact, they only have 2 shots *on target* in the first half of all 4 games! To say they’ve been a second-half team is an understatement. It’s still early, but getting the offense going earlier in games is going to be crucial down the stretch.
Sloppy Defense
Republic’s first allowed goal of the season was a really sloppy one. Look, goals against happen. Sometimes you miss a mark on a corner, or an opposing striker makes a good hit, or you get caught out transitioning. It happens. What sucks about this goal is that it was far too easy. Watch the Monterey Bay player (Leggett) who gets the first head on the ball—and goes on to score:
He just runs straight up the middle and everyone just kind of… let’s him go? Let’s pause right after he heads the ball. Kleemann (circled) is taking care of the opposing player the ball goes to—that’s where he is supposed to be. But this came off a goal kick, so the other center back, Lee Desmond (squared), gets caught out a little too far up the pitch. Someone has to step into the center to block, or at least slow down, the opposing attacker:
But no one steps into that space quickly enough. So you’re left with this:
And Leggett is just off to the races. No one even gets a touch on him. It’s only the first goal allowed of the season, 3 days after the squad played 120+ minutes, so I don’t want to harp on it too much. But damn is it annoying for the first goal allowed of the year to be such an easy one.
Bad Subs
This game wasn’t helped that the substitutions were late and less than ideal. Yes, yes tired legs, long term fitness, etc, are all factors, but Republic conceded just 4 minutes after subbing Wanner and Chibi on. Immediately after the goal, Collins subbed in Edwards in hopes to get the winning goal—but with only 5 minutes left, Edwards managed just one touch of the ball. The only substitution that had any sort of significant play time was Pep Casas, who came in in the 69th minute but was all but absent from the game for 21 minutes—he had just 5 touches, was 2/4 on passes, had 0 shots, and had no defensive contributions.
As a whole, the subs averaged a 6.4 player rating and it’s hard to fault them for it. They just didn’t get enough time to actually get into the match, and all 4 of them started Wednesday. Add in the 2 known injuries Republic has to starters and midweek matches and things can get dicey; it could be Republic needs to find some depth as the season goes on.
What Stood Out:
A point is a point, but dropping 2 points to easily one of the worst teams in the league at home stings quite a bit. While Republic is averaging only 0.25 goals against per game so far, the goals against are going to happen over the course of the season —and Republic needs to figure out how to score early and often enough to offset those. It doesn’t help that Republic played 120 minutes in a fiery contest with El Farolito in the Open Cup midweek, a game where every single player except Crisostomo played a not-insignificant number of minutes. Starters Lee Desmond, Freddy Kleemann, Blake Willey, and Danny Vitiello not only played all 120 minutes Wednesday but also played at least 70 minutes in this match.
Even still, it’s 2 points dropped to a poor Monterey team and drops Republic to 3rd in the West, just off the pace of Oakland and San Antonio. Neill Collins’ post-game comments showed some disappointment:
“...when they scored, I think we looked very tired at that point. Understandable, to play 120 minutes the third week into the season. But… there’s no excuse. I thought we did more than enough to win the game in probably the first 75- 80 minutes, but the last five minutes. We could have lost it… it feels like two points dropped.”
Republic re-takes the field Saturday at home against El Paso—a team that beat Monterey in Week 2 by a score of 3-0 and who are now also coming off a bye week. This is going to be a tricky test for Republic; El Paso were vulnerable to set pieces in their first match, but Sacramento hasn’t scored off a corner since 2024 and have struggled on set pieces for years. They may need their first corner goal in over a year to break the deadlock.
