Sacramento vs Lexington: Tactical Analysis - Wasted Chances

07/19: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out

The Lineup:

A draw in football can often feel like either a win or a loss instead. While they count the same, a last gasp goal to equalize on the road feels very different than a controlling 0-0 draw at home against lesser opposition. And this match was a great example of the latter: despite being up a man for 62 minutes at home, Republic walked away with only a point in a night that can only be described as frustrating.

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For the lineup, Collins has firmly cemented his backline and midfield. The only change tonight came with the return to the starting XI of Jack Gurr, whom AJ Edwards had been covering for the last 2 matches or so. And it’s really been working; Sacramento has only conceded a single goal in the last 5 matches.

Up top is going to get interesting with the signing of Khori Bennett. While he was not included in the 18 this week, it’s doubtful that Republic signed Bennett to play as purely a bench player. When Las Vegas sold Bennett to Al-Nasr SC, it was a club record sale. He scored 15 goals in the final 24 matches of the 2024 season; last season, Republic’s top goal scorer Kieran Phillips scored just 12 goals in 28 matches. The real question will be who he will replace in the starting XI. This match, like the last few matches, saw Herrera play as a forward striker, while Cicerone played on the left wing and Roro on the right wing. Cicerone and Herrera both have just 4 goals in 14 appearances this season; Roro has just 1 goal in 12 appearances, but is the superior chance creator this season to Cicerone and Herrera. If I had to guess, Bennett probably steps into Herrera’s spot, giving a front 3 of Cicerone, Roro, and Bennett. For tonight though, the goals were completely lacking.

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The Good:

Well, on the bright side, Republic created a lot of chances. 20 shots is really positive. Additionally, the backline held firm, and every single starter except Herrera received a match rating of over 7.0. The finishing touch just wasn’t there tonight. There were a few good individual efforts; this run and shot by Cicerone is fantastic:

It’s just really unlucky to be saved. A few weeks ago, I commented how, contrary to Dunivant’s thoughts, Sacramento really hasn’t been unlucky:

Tonight, Republic actually was unlucky. They had an xG of 1.68 to Lexington’s 0.88. And even though they had only 6 shots on target, several point blank shots were blocked by last minute defending from Lexington. 9 times out of 10, Republic win this game.

There isn’t really too much else to break down here; the club played well, but are still missing the final pieces to score goals when they dominate possession. You also have to hand it to Lexington’s goalkeeper, Thompson, who made 5 saves. Overall, the match was a positive showing, but the numbers are a bit inflated from playing against 10 men for most of the match. I wish I had more to break down here, but there just isn’t anything new to look at in a 0-0 match.

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The Bad:

On the Reddit match thread, one user commented:

“Predicting a Quail City article this week about how playing up a man is a disadvantage. Too much possession!” - u/UpTheSacTown

And the thing is.. that user is completely correct. Republic’s issues all season have revolved around breaking down opposing teams that sit in a low block and let Republic have the ball. What we saw in this match is just how bad that can be. An early red card is, paradoxically, a net negative for Sacramento right now. It causes the opposition to sit back and put all 10 men behind the ball, and Republic doesn’t have the tools to deal with that. Naturally, Republic’s 60% possession led to nothing.

Let’s look at it this way: Republic has played 133 minutes this season against teams reduced to 10 men due to red cards. They’ve scored just 2 goals in that time, good for a goal every 66.5 minutes. However, one of those goals wasn’t a result of the opposition having 10 men: it was a PK that also resulted in the red card. So when Sacramento are playing against 10 men on the field, they are averaging just one goal every 133 minutes. That’s terrible, especially when you consider that they are averaging one goal every 65 minutes of play otherwise. They actually score roughly half as often when the opposition goes down a man.

Now, the tools to fix this ARE coming. New signing Khori Bennett was at the match but unavailable, presumably due to the wait for either a visa or federation approval. Sacramento’s front office hopes that Bennett can be the one to break games like this open; he has the tactical and physical skill-set to be a target man in the box for all the crosses Collins’ likes to have come in from the wings. Republic was only 8 for 37 on crosses in this match, and even though Republic has been one of the more successful teams this season in cross completion, that’s resulted in only 3 headed goals. If Bennett can provide goals like he did here:

or here:

or here:

Then all of those crosses will finally have a way to find the back of the net.

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What Stood Out:

This match was frustrating, yes. The one disallowed goal really shouldn’t have been - but Republic also should have put together more chances while being up a man for 62 minutes. This performance can’t be blamed on the officiating. It’s also hard to be too harsh on the team though. The Front Office has identified a need that we here at Quail City Soccer have been calling for for some time: a tall, physical striker who can put away the chances Republic is good at generating. Assume that it will take some time for Bennett to integrate with the squad, though. He could come off the bench this weekend in Spokane, but it also could be a few weeks before he is consistently contributing.

This next week will be an interesting challenge for the Quails; in the final match day of the USL Cup, and Sacramento has to not just win against 3rd division Spokane, but they need to win by the same amount of goals or more against Spokane than Monterey score against AV Alta to advance.

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