Sacramento vs. Oakland and at Loudoun: Tactical Analysis - Concerned, but not Panicked
08/16 & 08/20: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
It was a week that could have gone better. It was also a week that could have gone much, much worse. On one hand, a point in a derby game in front of a sell out crowd followed by a road win on short rest in a quarterfinal is a decent, but not great, week. On the other hand, dropping 2 points at home to one of the worst teams in the league before then getting extremely lucky in not allowing a goal in a knockout game is not exactly ideal.
But, I think any Republic fan can agree, you really have to give the boys credit for the amount of heart they displayed this week. There are certainly some worrying tactical numbers that we’ll look at in a bit here, but as we do, keep in mind that this is a club that has not lost since June. One of the biggest factors in this run has been the consistency in the starting XI. Collins has found his favored line-up and, outside of the occasional swap of the duos of Ross/Roro and Bennett/Herrera, he’s utilized it nearly every game.
Republic’s high intensity press that transforms into quick counter-attacks has resulted in an increase in goals and a more solid backline over the last 6 weeks. But some of that fell apart this week; namely, a lack of defense in one game and a lack of offense in the other. Still, Republic bent but didn’t break - let’s look at why.
The Good:
The Undefeated Streak Continues
Republic are now undefeated in their last 8 matches, picking up 6 wins. In those 8 games, they’re averaging around 47% possession; in halves that they have scored, they’re averaging just 45.5%. They outscored their opponents 13 to 4, won 3 of 4 games on the road, and, incredibly, only trailed their opponents for a total of 7 out of 720+ minutes. This streak has just been completely dominant, and the club is firing on all cylinders.
Blake Willey
The emergence of Blake Willey has been a sight to behold, and has given Republic a teenage player who is an absolute engine. Against Loudoun, Willey led the team in completed passes in the final third with 15, led the teams in xG, and was second on the team in chances created - statistically, Willey essentially organized and led the team's offense despite playing in the middle of the pitch. On top of that, he was the 4th most accurate passer on the field.
Even more impressive, Blake did this while being the only non-defender to play all 90 minutes of both of this week’s matches. And it wasn’t just on the offensive side. On defense, he had 4 clearances and a blocked shot! Look at how he (closest Republic player to the camera) tracks all the way back here, despite it being the 82nd minute:
This is why he’s the only non-defender to play all 180 minutes this week. The kid is an engine in the midfield, which perfectly fits what Republic needs.
The Goals are Coming
While Republic couldn’t get anything going against Loudoun (we’ll discuss that later), the goals have otherwise been pouring in. In their last 6 league matches, Republic is averaging 2 goals a game, while they’re only allowing 0.66 goals a match against. And that includes the Oakland match. Republic’s defense comes as no surprise - they’ve been the best in the league all season - but the offensive numbers improving is why the wins are starting to come through where they couldn’t be found earlier in the season.
One of the biggest reasons for the increase in scoring is how heavily Republic has leaned into the high press. Watch this goal from the Oakland match:
Republic presses all the way forward, forcing Oakland into the corner, and then Oakland doesn’t have an outlet, on either the throw or the clearance. From turn over to goal, it’s 6 seconds. The third goal is very similar; it’s a midfield turn over, and from turn over to goal, it’s 9 seconds:
Cicerone hitting a wonderful strike helps, obviously, but he has the space to do so because the high press allows Sacramento to counter hard whenever they win the ball back. The only down side of a high press is that it is exhausting; and you could see that when Republic played Loudoun, and settled to play for a low-block instead of a high press.
Heart and Grit Under Fire
During the Loudoun game, Republic played nearly the entire second half on the backfoot, and this was by design. With tired heavy legs, Republic needed a way to outlast Loudoun’s offense. Jared Mazzola commented on the low block after the game:
“They were [a] really good side, and at times we had to sit back in a low block and defend deep, but we were able to get the job done because we're just resilient.”
Look at how far back Republic are sitting in just the 60th minute:
Yes, that is Cicerone, playing as a striker, sitting that far into his own half - and that should illustrate just how deep Republic played this. The backline is almost in the goal box. In a normal game, I’d say this was a tactical misstep, but given the travel, heat, humidity, and short turn around, I think Collins adjusted the team to exactly what was needed.
Republic weathered 23 total shots, and Mazzola was called on to make 6 saves - not including the play where he won the ball by charging out of his box. This is high risk goalkeeping, but it needed to be done and Jared gets just enough on this to avoid a foul and a red card:
Loudoun had 56% of the possession, over double the xG, and 17 more passes in the final third. The Republic defense put their bodies on the line, blocking 11 shots. And all of this after a grueling 3-3 derby just 4 days prior, before flying 2,300 miles to Washington, DC to play on a turf field in a quarterfinal. And yet, while the defense certainly bent, it refused to break. This team has grit, something Mazzola also commented on after the game:
“It's really kind of a mentality thing that the coaching staff has helped instill in us… these tough, gritty games, it's all about just doing your job. That's it - working for the man next to you, even if you're tired, keeping to run, setting the press, knowing when to go, recognizing the triggers and just doing everything the right way.”
The Bad:
Defensive Lapses At the End of Games
Republic just can NOT seem to close out close games or halves with regularity. Oakland scored at the end of both halves, and both times Republic just seemed to be turned off. Let’s look at the goal at the end of the first half:
First of all, no one presses. The whole team is sat back, waiting for the half to be over. Then, when the ball does come in, there are 3 Republic players who could make a play on this who are just caught ball watching. Kleemann does eventually press in, and the Oakland’s Wilson does put a great finish on it, but he shouldn’t even be in a position to do so. Now look at the goal at the end of the game:
Oakland’s Damm basically gets a completely free header. This isn’t some wonder-goal; he just out positions and out jumps everyone near him. Not a single Republic player really even challenges him for the ball. It’s either lazy defending or bad tactics during the set up when the defense is man marking.
Republic have now given up 8 goals in the final 5 minutes of either the first or second half - that’s half of the goals they’ve allowed this season. Republic’s defense has been incredible all season, but allowing goals at these crucial moments could become a real problem come playoffs.
Struggling to Shoot
13. That’s how many total shots Republic had in both games combined. While scoring 3 goals on 5 shots against Oakland is impressive, that is a performance that can’t be relied on. Republic has gone back and forth this season with how often they shoot; through the first 5 games, they had the most shots in the entire league. But, that resulted in an abysmal conversion rate and Collins had the club pull back a bit, favoring quality over quantity of shots. One thing Republic needs to be careful of though is letting that number get too low. It’s not a cause for concern yet, especially as the goals keep coming, but it is something to keep an eye on heading into the dog days of summer.
What Stood Out:
Overall, not a bad week. Yes, dropping 2 points to an Oakland squad that is second worst in the West at home stings, but derby games just have a different sort of bite to them, don’t they? Republic hosting away fans doesn’t happen very often, but it does make things a lot of fun. Big shout-out to the Oakland fans that made the trip from the Bay.
Republic also advances in the Jägermeister Cup, a gritty mid-week win after flying 2,340 miles to get there. Unfortunately, they drew Rhode Island away for the semi-final, where they’ll have to fly 2,615 miles. Hopefully, they can host the final to avoid another day of travel.
Looking forward, the next stretch for Sacramento is going to be a difficult one. The next home game isn’t until September 13th. The next two matches in particular are big ones – games at fourth place El Paso and sixth place New Mexico. Both clubs are looking for home revenge after losing to Republic in Sacramento earlier this season, and both teams equally need wins to cement their playoff positions. Even a single point off of each team, especially on the road, could give Republic some breathing room in the table down the stretch.