Republic made major steps towards improving their goal scoring over the last 2 weeks, signing legendary USL striker Cal Jennings. Goal scoring has long been an issue for Republic—despite leading the league in defensive metrics year over year, Republic hasn’t been able to perform consistently on the other side of the pitch since the days of Cameron Iwasa.

So it’s ironic that, in Jenning’s first appearance (albeit as a sub), Republic’s defense let them down and resulted in a very poor 2 dropped points at home. In a Western Conference that is tighter down the stretch than any table I’ve seen in professional football, 2 points dropped could be the difference between a home playoff match and missing the playoffs entirely. Republic is simultaneously 3 points out of first place while also being just 2 points above the playoff line. It’s madness. So why did Republic fall apart against Phoenix? Why did the first half look so good? Let’s dive in.

Republic is slowly but surely getting players back from injury. I say slowly because injured guys are finally starting to sub in—Spaulding made just his 2nd appearance since his injury in Boise over a month ago and Kleemann is on the bench with regularity now. Still no word on Benitez or MAK (who was seen with a knee brace and also joined the broadcast), but Republic’s signing of Tim Leibold to a full-season contract tells me Benitez may be out a while longer. 

Even so, this was a pretty standard look for Republic. Leibold stayed further back than Gurr did, to allow Republic to stay in a back 3 while Gurr surged forward. When Leibold did get forward, Casas dropped into his place. Willey, Memo, and Malango shifted to their left when Gurr surged forward to create a 4 pronged attack behind Wolff. All stuff we’ve seen before, and really, no surprises outside of the late subs which we will talk about below. Until MAK or Benítez are back and Cal Jennings is ready to start, this about as consistent of an XI you are going to get out of Republic. 

Republic had a fantastic first half. They out shot Phoenix 5 to 3, out-possessed them 59% to 41%, and by all measures looked to be going into halftime with a 2-0 lead. Collins said:

Of the 2 goals, Wolff’s goal is a great example of the type of goal Republic wants to score. The Republic attack doesn’t run up the middle—it runs up the wings, where outside players then whip the ball into the box or make the run in themselves. Look at Republic’s attacking map:

They barely operate in the central attacking 3rd, with all forward progress being on the wings, by design. Wolff’s headed goal was off a perfectly weighted ball in from Malango from, you guessed it, near the sideline.

Things improved even more when Memo Rodriguez scored in the 27th minute to bring the score line to 2-0. It’s a great finish by Memo, who is in sort of the “right place, right time” when the Phoenix keeper makes a terrible pass. And, while I hate to admit it, this may be one where Republic gets a bit lucky. Memo could be just offside here:

The camera angle here makes it difficult to draw a fully accurate line - I had to use a mow line on the field to box this - but he looks to be just off or just on depending on where you draw the line. Given how often 50/50 decisions have gone against the Quails this year… they’ll take it either way. 

So Republic is up 2-0, they’re controlling the game, and they’re winding things down to go to the locker room... and then Phoenix grabbed a trickle of a goal. I mean, this is just a complete breakdown at the back that comes out of literally nothing, mostly as a result of Republic switching off just before half. Honestly, it’s mostly on Casas getting beat. Look at the situation before Phoenix’s pass:

Republic is man-to-man. But the run by the Rising player (white arrow) isn’t followed by Casas, so Leibold is forced to give chase… leaving the player he left behind wide open. It’s just lazy defending right before half, and from the post-match interviews, it really set the tone for the second half. Casas himself commented after the match:

Collins also commented on the mistakes:

So let’s talk about that second half. Republic went from controlling the offensive part of the game to just sort of... holding on to the ball. They went from outshooting Phoenix 5 to 3 in the first half to being outshot 6 to 1 in the second half. Yes, Republic managed just a single shot total in the entire second half despite controlling 61% of the possession. 

Frankly, Republic looked tired. Phoenix, meanwhile, found some life. Despite the lack of possession, Phoenix controlled the match by miring Republic down in the middle of the pitch with a really well done physical press that Republic didn’t have a response to. Casas alluded to this in his post match interview—Republic’s were “a bit too loose on the ball,” which is what gave Phoenix most of their shots. Quick turnovers from poor ball control from Republic gave Rising the ball in dangerous positions. The number of fouls also increased substantially—there were 9 fouls total in the first half (6 committed by Sac, 3 by Phoenix) and 24 in the second half (6 committed by Sac, 16 by Phoenix). Phoenix came out to play physically in the second half, and Republic had no response. Collins mentioned the style of the second half post-match: 

Republic’s one good sub on the night was Spaulding coming on for Malango in the 54th minute. Malango, despite the assist early in the match, struggled to control the ball out wide, losing possession 10 times, and losing 8 of his 9 duels. To fix this, Collins brought in Spaulding, who went 2/2 on dribbles, only lost possession 3 times, and went a perfect 8 for 8 on duals. Frankly, if Spaulding is healthy, he should be starting at left wing next week. Malango has averaged a player rating of 6.58 over the last 10 matches with just 1 goal and 1 assist to show for it. A 6.58 player rating is lower than Republic’s lowest rated player on the season (min. 5 matches), Blake Willey at a 6.6. For context, the Republic roster as a whole is averaging a 6.91. 

Player rating certainly isn’t everything—but Republic received an immediate boost when Spaulding came onto the field and injected some life into the game. The issue is that Collins waited 20 more minutes to bring on more subs, Arturo and Cal Jennings (in his Republic debut), and neither were effective, and then he waited until there was a single minute left in the game to bring in the last 2 subs, Essel and Edwards. These just occurred too late in the game for them to have any impact, with the last 2 subs coming on after Phoenix had already scored their 2nd. 

Let’s talk about that second goal. Republic had played a ball over the top, smelled blood in the water, and pressed up to try and take advantage… but then didn’t have a response when Rising cleared the ball back over the top to spring a counterattack. Republic did well to deal with the first attempt, but no one closes down the ensuing cross and Leibold just gets beat in the air:

It’s a really unfortunate goal to concede, though you have to give credit to the great finish by Ihsan Sacko. Republic just looked too tired to deal with it. This was a game that could have really used MAK or Benítez, both of whom are still out injured, or, at the very least, an earlier entrance of Essel.

While Republic will be happy that they got the offense going, 2 defensive mistakes and some poor man management results in 2 points lost.

249
Minutes Republic had gone before conceding a goal, from FC Tulsa’s 66th minute goal, through matches against Pittsburgh and Lexington, until Phoenix’s goal in the 45th minute.

+1.22
How many goals Phoenix scored over their expected goal (xG) value of just 0.78. That’s Republic’s 2ndworst rate of goals allowed vs xG on the season, trailing only the San Antonio match where SAFC scored 2 goals on an xG of just 0.62. In just these 2 matches, the opposition scored 4 goals on a combined 1.4 xG. 

One
The number of multi-goal games Republic has failed to win this season, out of 10 total.

33.3%
Republic’s conversion rate on the night, scoring twice on 6 shots. Republic started the season with one of the worst conversion rates in the league, but being smarter with their shot choices consistently has shot them up to being tied for 6th in the league in conversion rate.

100%
Spaulding’s dual win rate, going 7 for 7 on the ground and 1 for 1 in the air, tying him for most won duals on the team on the night despite only playing 36 minutes.

As mentioned earlier, Republic is very much in control of their own fate. Just 2 points above the playoff line, 3 points out of first, and fewer matches played than many of their opponents, this is a team that could very easily swoop into first in the West… or quickly fall out of playoff contention all together. A road game against worst-in-the-west Monterey looms next, before traveling to a weakened and exposed Orange County after. 

There remains very real roster questions down the final 10 game stretch. When will Jennings start, and how will he perform? Will Republic get MAK or Benítez back before the end of the season, with time to ramp up for playoffs? Both wing players, Malango and Willey, have struggled—do Spaulding or Wolff take over those positions? There is a lot of uncertainty, but Tyler Wolff is confident Republic are still on the up and up: