Republic leave Monterey with an ugly looking draw, a draw where they very much appear to be equals with the worst team in the Western Conference. And this is a draw that requires context; on paper, a 1-1 draw against an interstate rival on the road is not the end of the world. It’s a good point picked up in a tight playoff race and keeps the teams behind Sacramento in the standings at bay. If this was on the road against Orange County, or Phoenix, or San Antonio, we’d all be collectively shrugging our shoulders and saying “yeah, we’ll take the draw”.
But this game was against Monterey Bay. A team that is so far behind in the West, they are 10 points behind the next team (Oakland). They have the second worst goal difference in the entire USL-Championship. They’ve allowed 41 goals, over double the amount that Republic have, and have allowed 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 10 matches. The last time Monterey even had the lead in a game was a 24 minute span 3 matches ago, in a match where they went on to lose 5-2. This is not a defensively gifted team. Let’s take a look at their last 10 matches, working back from before the Republic match:
@ Rhode Island - loss, 3-1
@ Oakland - draw, 1-1
Vs New Mexico - loss, 5-2
@ El Paso - loss, 1-0
@ Lexington - loss, 3-2
Vs Orange County - loss, 2-1
@ Phoenix - loss, 3-2
Vs Las Vegas - loss, 3-2
@ San Antonio - draw, 0-0
Vs El Paso - win, 1-0
That’s 1 win and 2 draws in 10 matches, and a streak of 6 straight losses. They’ve allowed multiple goals in 6 of their last 10. They’ve been outscored 21 to 11. Their last win, way back on June 20th against El Paso, looks like a minor miracle. They are currently on pace to have the third worst season post-Covid for a non-expansion USL-C side. They’ve won zero away games all year, with 3 draws and 9 losses. I could go on and on. This is not a good team. It’s not even a decent or mediocre team.
But none of that matters, because it took Sacramento Republic 84 minutes to get their first (and only) shot on target. Before the shot on target/goal, Republic had 12 shots, all but 4 of them from within the box, and could not hit the target. While 8 of Republic’s 17 total shots on the night were blocked by a Monterey defender, 8 shots just weren’t even on target. Of the 8 misses, 5 of them weren’t even close. Again, we’re talking about doing this against the second worst defensive team in the league.
In all three matches against Monterey this season, Republic have drawn 1-1 (USL Cup post-match PK’s notwithstanding). If not for Nick Ross skying a penalty kick at Heart Health Park, Monterey would have also had their only away win of the season… in Sacramento.
This is unacceptable. In the tightest Western Conference in recent memory, these are games where champion-caliber teams perform. Monterey is clearly a weak team in the league. For Republic to drop 4 points to them in just the league is an abject failure on every level, no matter how the club wants to spin a “point on the road”.
So where does that leave us now?
One of the things that is astounding about Republic, year in and year out, is that they never cease to play to the level of their opponent. This can certainly have its upsides - we’ve seen Republic go toe-to-toe with the best teams in U.S. soccer over the last 12 years. Just 2 years ago, Republic lost by a single goal to the Seattle Sounders, a team that had won the CONCACAF Champions League in 2022. And don’t forget that they beat 3 MLS teams in 2022 to make it to the US Open Cup Final, including the Galaxy in their own stadium.
But on the other hand, we’ve regularly seen them play down a level as well. This year alone they’ve lost to a USL-1 side in AC Boise, required almost the entire 120 minutes to beat an amateur side in El Farolito, and have drawn against Worst-in-the-West Monterey Bay three times. And it’s not just this year. In 2024, the same year they matched the aforementioned Sounders, Republic dropped points in league play to Monterey (again!) in a 2-2 draw and to Tulsa in a 0-0 draw, teams that finished in 12th and 10th respectively.
There have been a lot of excuses. “Unlucky” appears to be said far too often, from former President Todd Dunivent, to former coach Mark Briggs, and to current coach Neill Collins. Even the players themselves have gotten in on it, as they can be heard regularly using the phrase in post-match interviews, podcasts, and even on the broadcast - MAK used the same phrase two weeks ago against Phoenix when he guest appeared in the broadcast booth. Captain Lee Desmond described the loss at Tulsa as “unlucky” just 3 weeks ago.
To a point, teams can certainly be “unlucky”. That’s why we look at things like expected goals (xG) to try and measure that level of luck. But Republic is far past being able to blame a lack of luck, and it’s starting to feel like more of a “culture of excuses” than it is a “culture of results”. Good teams move past “unlucky”, because they can overcome luck. They’re better than luck. Over the course of a season, they play better than luck allows.
Republic have 9 more matches left to prove they can do that.
