Sacramento Republic: Tactical Analysis - Where Are All The Goals?
A Special Edition of Quail City Soccer's Tactical Analysis
Welcome to a special edition of the Quail City Soccer Tactical Analysis, where this week, we will be taking a little break from our normal weekly recap. As most of you know, we usually deep dive into the most recent match to break down what happened—what formation did Republic use, what did the opposition use, and what did the numbers say? This week, we’re going to do things a bit different. Coming out of Republic’s 1-0 loss to New Mexico, in which Republic put up 18 shots and still struggled to hit the broadside of a barn, it seemed more prudent to try and answer a very important question:
Where are all the goals?
The “Collins Out” calls have been increasing fairly rapidly on social media due the recent results. Usually, the calls start on Reddit and the edges of Twitter before slowly leaking out to Instagram and then Facebook—once folks on Facebook are calling for a manager to be fired, that’s around when you know that the hot seat is really getting hot. But I’m actually going to make the argument that Collins’ *tactics* have been generally… good. Not great. Not spectacular. But good. You can still very easily argue that the players he has signed to match these tactics were poor choices, and I don’t disagree in many cases, but the actual tactics themselves are certainly better than the run of results suggest, and I’m going to make that argument by looking at some numbers. Let’s dive into some stats!
No Problems Creating Chances
To get to the crux of the issue, look at what Captain Lee Desmond said right after the New Mexico match:
“...we’re halfway through the season now, and we just haven’t scored enough goals. We’re getting into fantastic positions tonight, and we need to score goals. It’s as simple as that, and it’s cost us the game… We’re working hard. I’m not questioning anyone about that, but we need to show the quality in the box.”
Lee’s frustration is obvious here, especially as a defender that does his job damn well week in and week out. The “getting into fantastic positions” is the part I want to focus on first though as we try to solve this problem. Because Lee is right—Republic genuinely are making plenty of chances. Over the season, Republic are 2nd in the league in possessions won in the final 3rd, a sign of that occasional high press that Republic utilize. Turn overs in the oppositions half are usually an easy way to generate chances and are, at the very least, a way of quickly earning the ball back in dangerous positions. Last season, many of those up-field turn overs turned into those “6 second goals” that we discussed last season, where Republic forced a turnover up field, laid the ball off, and shot on goal, all within 6 seconds of gaining possession. We really broke down that full press the last time Republic played New Mexico:
Republic hasn’t scored any goals like that this year, despite the high rate of winning possession in the opposing half. A big part of this is that this team is a much more possession heavy team than last year, with this year’s team averaging a 52% possession rate vs. last season’s 47%. But even so, Republic isn’t exactly starved for chances. A good way to measure quality chances at goal is expected goals (xG). We’ve discussed this before but for a quick refresher, xG assigns every shot a value between 0 and 1 based on how likely it is to be scored, using historical data from similar shot situations. Factors like shot location, angle, type of assist, body part used, and whether it’s a rebound or not all contribute to that probability. In short, it’s a lot of math.
When you sum those values across all shots, you get a team’s xG over a certain time period, which estimates how many goals they should have scored over that time based on chance quality rather than actual finishing. So a higher xG means more high quality chances—a lower xG means fewer. Compared to the rest of the USL-Championship, Republic is actually in a pretty good spot:
Tenth overall, with an xG of 19.95. If Republic had ~20 goals on the season, they’d be tied for 3rd on goals for in the Western Conference. But let’s go a bit deeper than just basic xG. Republic has generated this high of an xG despite being 4th lowest in the league in total shots taken with 133. The 2 teams at the top of the list, Louisville and Tampa Bay, have over 200 shots already this season with 234 and 211 shots respectively. In fact, when you break down the numbers, Republic actually has the highest average xG per shot in the entirety of USL. Take a look at the top 10 teams:
First place to look on here is the xG / Shot column—this is where we are looking at the aforementioned xG per shot statistic that Republic is leading. But now we are starting to get into why Republic’s goal total is so much lower than their chance creation suggests. The next column over is GF (goals for) / Shot—and Republic is far far lower than their xG suggests they should be. In fact, every team on this table is under-performing with the exception of Charleston, and Republic is the team under-performing the most! It takes Republic just over 10 shots to score a goal, but the data suggests they should be scoring a goal every 6.7 shots.
A Finishing Problem
So Republic is generating chances at a pretty decent rate—they’re 10th in the league in xG, lead the league in xG per shot, and are second in the league in turnovers in the opponents half. But the goals just aren’t there, and the biggest factor is Republic’s inability to finish. Let’s dig into some metrics to prove that.
First, as we all know, Republic is not scoring enough goals. Ok, fine, but how far behind are they? Well the league average right now is at just over 17 goals scored—Republic have just 13, tied for 2nd worst in the league with New Mexico and only ahead of Hartford who have just 10. With 13 goals scored, Republic have a conversion rate of 9.8%, which is the 5th worst in the entire league. This brings us back to the xG conversation from earlier. The average Republic shot has the highest statistical chance in the league to be a goal, but Republic are 5th worst in the league at converting those chances despite those chances being of higher quality than the rest of the league. Look at each team’s total Goals For compared to their Generated xG:
The trend line here shows the number of goals the xG says a team should have, i.e., an xG of 20 would result in 20 goals if you’re on the line. Above the line, you’re overperforming with more goals scored than expected, which means your finishing is fantastic. Below the line, you’re underperforming and the finishing is below the expected rate. Below the line a lot… and that’s a sign of trouble. Note though that this is just referring to a teams performances in goals. Teams like Tampa Bay and Louisville are underperforming their goal totals, sure, but that doesn’t mean they still aren’t winning games. Republic themselves are hanging around still due to their league 3rd-best defense. What becomes alarming for Republic is that they are a team that is drastically underperforming their goal total. Their 13 goals and 19.95 xG means that Sacramento has 6.95 goals fewer than the stats say they should—the 2nd-worst rate in the league and worse than the 3rd-worst team by almost an entire goal.
One thing that is causing this is Republic’s inability to put away so-called “big chances.” A “big chance” is a stat that tracks a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances. Republic have the 11th most big chances created in the league, but are 2nd to last in the league in goals per big chance, scoring on just half of them. And that includes penalties, where Republic have 3, 2 of which they’ve scored from. From open play, they’re scoring only around 40% of their big chances.
To top it off, Republic are 4th in the league with shots off the woodwork with 7 and they lead the league in offside calls with 37 compared to a league average of just 21. Both of those contribute to a lesser number of goals than expected; the shots of the woodwork are half luck/half lack of finishing, and the offside calls are just poor communication within the team.
Players, Not Tactics
I hate to call guys out, but this is a player problem, not a tactical one. Collins has set up the team well to create chances that should be finished. The players are just not finishing them. Look at Republic’s attacking options:
The only 2 players that are “over-performing” are Edwards and Arturo, both of whom are substitutes. And this table leaves out MAK and Benítez, both of whom play more defensive roles—yet still have the 2nd- and 4th-highest xG on the team respectively. Every other attacker I’ve left out doesn’t have an xG high enough to be worth discussing. Ajago’s -2.88 difference between his goals and his xG is particularly glaring considering he starts as a forward. I’ve talked in the past about how his role is not to score goals, but rather to open up space for others to score, but that doesn’t mean he can just throw goal scoring chances away. He needs to finish the chances that he gets.
Some of this blame certainly lies on Collins’ shoulders, especially this season—this roster is almost entirely of his creation now, there aren’t any hold over players to use as an excuse. But I also have to wonder if there is a club philosophy or training issue somewhere that’s adding in to all this. Republic has never been a high scoring team, but season after season the team has been able to create a higher number of chances and yet is consistently unable to finish them. What astounds me is that this has been carried over between several coaches, players, and tactical systems, and players that leave go on to instantly make impacts elsewhere. Khori Bennett is 4th in the league in goals with 8 in Colorado Springs. Russel Cicerone has 3 goals in just 9 starts in Tampa Bay despite picking up an injury and playing as a winger rather than a striker. Cristian Parano has a goal and 4 assists in San Antonio despite injury. The list goes on.
Republic need to start finishing their chances if they have any hope of winning silverware anytime soon. Frankly, the current roster has shown it’s not good enough to do that, and so Republic needs to start looking at the transfer market to see who they can bring in. The new stadium opens up in 2028 (as we are continuously reminded through mid-game ad reels…), and what better way to hype up that excitement than a big summer signing? With 1 win and just 3 goals in the last 5 games, Republic needs to act quickly before things start to further fall apart.
Good analytical article. My problem with our current performances is due to lineups. It feels like he consistently puts in 9 defensive minded players on the pitch with 2 offensive minded players. So the defensive minded players create chances but there are not enough players who can actually score the ball. So, getting a scorer would be great. However, I would argue a change in tactics/formation/type of players on the pitch might lead to better finishing. Yes, we might give up more goals, but I would rather win/lose 3-2 than win/lose 1-0. At least the games would be more entertaining.
Great breakdown, thanks!