Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Sacramento Republic dominates the match, generates chance after chance, and… walks away with dropped points. Sound familiar? Republic is now on a 5 match unbeaten streak, but 4 of those 5 matches ended in draws that absolutely should have been wins. And frankly, the stats have been staggering. Let’s compare Republic’s match average vs the opposition in the last 5:

Republic is leading every single category, including over double the number of shots, double the xG, and over triple the corners, yet this has resulted in just a single win. Especially notable is the shots on target number - which sits at just 0.6 higher on average than the opposition despite over double the shots and a significantly higher number of final third entries and dual wins. That’s outstandingly damning. To make matters worse, of 3 of the 4 goals they have allowed have come within 5 minutes of the end of the first or second half - on the other hand, 3 of Republic’s 5 goals have come in the 83rd minute or later, and all 3 of those were scored by substitutes. Other than 2 early goals against Phoenix, Republic has appeared to either shut off or lock in only in those final few minutes, and that’s a pretty substantial mentality problem to have.

Now don’t get me wrong, late goals in the Quail’s favor are always a good thing, but Republic is balancing on a knife's edge. 5 games unbeaten has resulted in just 7 points, doing just enough to keep Republic over the playoff line, and has made it increasingly difficult for Republic to crawl back into the top of the table for a much needed home playoff game - they’re now 7 points back of El Paso and New Mexico, neither of which appear to be struggling or slowing down. If Republic doesn’t sneak through those 3 late goals, you’re looking at 2 losses and 3 draws in the last 5 instead, which would have them all the way down in 10th, just above Las Vegas. On the other hand, if they were able to maintain their focus at the end of each half, they’d be looking at 3 wins and 2 draws, which would have them in third and only 3 points out of first.

Against a struggling Orange County in particular, Republic continued to dominate the game despite a new look from the team. And frankly, it looked good - but the finishing touch never came. Republic’s lone on target shot before the 80th minute was Memo’s moon shot from near the half line in the 14th minute, which was “on target” but was no trouble for the Orange County keeper. So what was this new look? Let’s dive in.

When Republic released the Starting XI, myself and another Republic tactics fan, Thomas, heavily discussed what in the world we were looking at. With no Jack Gurr in the lineup, but the return of Freddy Kleemann, the lineup featured 3 center backs - Desmond, Timmer, and Kleemann, and one outside back/winger, Spaulding. It also featured an interesting midfield selection of 5 players, with no traditional left side players, both Malango and Ajago on the bench, and Cal Jennings getting his first start.

What we ended up getting was a sort of 4-2-1-3.. ish? Desmond and Kleemann were easy to place - both solidly played at center back. The big surprise in the defense came from Jared Timmer, who ended up playing right back in place of Jack Gurr (who is presumably injured?) for just the second time in his Republic career and just the 16th time in 197 career matches. At left back, Spaulding took the place of Leibold, who had started the last several matches.

The midfield and attacking three is where things got interesting. Republic still operated with 2 center defensive midfielders, Memo and Crisostomo, but opted for a single central midfielder in Pep Casas over the traditional left, center, and right that we’ve seen before. Instead, Republic went with 2 strikers, Jennings on the left and Wolff on the right, while Blake Willey sort of played as a forward false 9 of sorts, working just behind Jennings on the left. A lot of these positions were fairly interchangeable - it was not uncommon for Memo to step up while Casas dropped in, for example - but that appears to be the rough shape of things.

So how did Republic use this new look? First, they utilized the outside defenders and both strikers to provide the team’s width, rather than outside midfielders. Spaulding and Timmer both bombed up the sidelines with regularity, while Jennings and Wolff largely stayed wide up front:

Cal Jennings, #26, would occasionally cut into the box, which is why his average positioning is a little more central than the other 3 wide players, but largely he stayed to the upper left side of the pitch:

Meanwhile. Republic overloaded the midfield with 4 players - Memo, Crisostomo, Casas, and Willey. Now, this is where the averaging positioning map lies a bit; Memo, #8, was not the most forward midfielder. In fact, he was playing at more of a center defensive midfielder with Crisostomo, as we mentioned above. But because of his regular corner taking and runs forward, his average positioning is further forward than his position. Compare his and Pep Casas’ positioning:

Memo’s position is much more free than Casas’ is, and is helped by Republic having 11 corners on the night, which Memo took, but Casas largely played as the center attacking midfielder in the oppositions half while Memo focused on more of the central part of the pitch.

So the general idea was to overload the midfield to draw defensive players in, and then have one of the midfielders ping the ball out wide to a (hopefully) open or 1-on-1 attacker. From there, the outside attacker either pulls defenders in and causes chaos on the backline before sending the ball back into the midfield, or they’re left 1-on-1 and can attack towards goal. This works in theory, but there is one player we haven’t discussed yet that was supposed to make this work in practice: Blake Willey.

Willey’s role appears to have been somewhat of a “false 9”, i.e., a forward player who drops into the midfield to either find or create pockets of space. Arguably, this role was the most crucial to tactic to actually finish chances. Unfortunately, Willey was not successful in this role and was largely the most underperforming player on the pitch with a 6.1 player rating. While he did occasionally get into space, and was tied for the most shots on the team, none of his shots were on target and he had just 28 touches - compared to an average of 74 touches for the other 3 midfielders. He struggled to regularly create enough space to shoot. His largest contributions were off the ball, mostly when he pulled defensive players in towards him to open up space for players like Memo, but even then these contributions were minimal. His additions in distribution weren’t notable either, going just 13 for 20 on passes. It’s not really clear what else his roll was supposed to be - if you look at his heat map, he kind of wonders between Jennings’ space and Casas’ space:

Willey has struggled for a bit now - he has the lowest average player rating on the team at just 6.57, and is averaging a 6.35 over his last 10 matches. He’s young, still developing, and certainly has huge potential, but Collins just can’t find a place to put him this season compared to 2025, where he averaged a 6.80 player rating while playing in the middle of the pitch. This year, with a crowded midfield of high level talent, Collins has tried him out wide and now up front. Frankly, he’s probably in the territory where he needs to be dropped from the starting XI for someone like Arturo, and I say that as a big Willey fan. It’s certainly been a learning year for the young talent.

Despite Willey struggling in the middle, Republic peppered the goal with shots, out-shooting Orange County 16 to 4, but had 0 shots on target between the 14th and 80th minute and only 4 shots on target total. This has to improve. Republic is making plenty of chances, but as per usual, just cannot get them on target. Collins reflected on the lack of goals, and the occasional defensive lapses, saying:

65%
Republic’s possession rate, tied for their 3rd highest on the season.

97%
Daniel Crisostomo’s passing success rate, going 66 for 68 in successful passes, including 38 for 40 in the oppositions half and 4 for 6 on long balls. That is outrageously good distribution.

11
The number of Republic corners on the night, their second highest on the season in league play - their highest on the season was 14, also against Orange County. After their struggles on corners over the last 2 years, Republic have now scored 4 of their last 10 goals off of corners.

74 to 31
The number of shots the Quails have total compared to their opponents over the last 5 matches - despite this rate, Republic’s goal different is only +1.

22.4% to 38.7%
Republic’s on target rate against their opponents over the last 5 matches - which largely explains part of the problem. Republic can shoot all they want, but they aren’t going to outscore the opposition if they can’t shoot on target enough.

It’s been a frustrating few weeks, despite being undefeated in 5, and it was nice to see both players and manager own that this week compared to the “unlucky” comments we’ve gotten in the past. Captain Lee Desmond had this to say:

And it’s good to see the players acknowledge that all these dropped points should be looked at as a defeat. Draws aren’t enough with how tight the western conference is, with just 6 points separating 3rd place and the playoff line. You could sense head coach Neill Collins frustration as well in his post match comments:

Republic now get to return home for 2 matches, but they’ll be tough ones - first taking on 3rd in the Eastern Conference Detroit, who are looking to cement their top 4 finish, and then taking on 5th place San Antonio, which is always a fiery and physical match up. On the bright side, Republic may be getting some reinforcements soon - Michelle Benitez reached out to Quail City Soccer to let us know that he is “just about ready to come back”. Republic certainly needs the defensive stability and control the Benitez provides, and getting him and MAK back before the playoffs would be huge for the team.

With just 8 matches to go before playoffs, Republic desperately needs to start turning these dominant performances into 3 points. In a Western Conference this tight, every point could be the difference between a home playoff game, a playoff game on the road, or even a playoff spot all together. It’s all the play for, and with the underlying numbers being positive, Republic will be looking to turn things around and get 6 points over these next 2 home games.