Sacramento at Orange County: Tactical Analysis
04/12: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
Going from a hard-fought draw against one of the best teams in the league to then losing to a team near the bottom of the table is terrible. That was not how the Republic wanted to start this crucial five-game stretch against teams in a poor run of form. It’s not time to hit the “panic” button yet, but the early alarm bells should certainly be ringing for the club as the winless streak continues.
Collins lined the Quails up in what has become the standard look, a 3-4-3 with two wide midfielders that usually drop in to the defensive line. The only change to the starting XI this week was the absence of Jack Gurr, who was replaced by Ryan Spaulding. The biggest difference in how this lineup functioned was a change in who dropped into the defensive line - instead of either of the wingers dropping back, Blake Willey played the CDM role and dropped in when needed to create a back four. You can see that here, three minutes into the game:
Instead of either Wanner or Spaulding stepping back into the defensive line on the outside, Timmer (LCB) takes the wide man while Willey drops into the center of the defense. This happens several times over the course of the match, and ultimately leads to some of the defensive instability.
The Good:
Let’s start with what good we can pull away from this match and what we can pull out of the start of this season. First off, Herrera has been playing great. He was easily our top rated player of the night with a 7.5 match rating and had a great headed goal. He also brings some physicality and fire to the team that Republic is sorely missing; it will be interesting to see if he gets the start either Wednesday against El Farolito or on Saturday against Phoenix.
Another positive to pull from this early stretch is that the Republic are top three in the league in shots, tackles, clearances, and accurate crosses per game. These are good metrics to be leading in, showing an ability to command the game on both offense and defense, even if the final result has not been there. The accurate crosses per game in particular is very positive, if the Republic can start getting players on the other end of those crosses.
And further, Republic are actually third in the league in average match rating, with a 6.93. Look at the top 5 and their place in the standings:
For new readers, average match ratings are out of 10, but a 6.5 is considered starting player quality. A 6.93 means Republic’s squad as a whole is playing above average. So, perhaps Republic is getting a bit unlucky; the individual player performances for most players are certainly among the best in the league. So why is the final product not there?
The Bad:
That lack of final product leads us to the bad, and this was a bad game. It is not just that Republic lost, it is that they lost to a weak Orange County team while looking completely disjointed. It may as well have been a different team than the one that faced Louisville.
One of the biggest factors that stood out to me was the Republic’s flexible shape compared to Orange County’s rigid structure. Look at the average positioning of Orange County (left) vs. Republic (right):
Orange County’s average positioning is so rigid, their formation is immediately clear, a 4-2-3-1. The Republic is all over the place. You can also really see how Sacramento’s wing players did not drop into the defensive line often; instead, the two wide center backs (Timmer, 5 and Benítez, 22) pushed out wider than normal while Willey (20) dropped back further than normal to the center when needed. You can see that in action here:
No one on the wing drops with the wide player, so Timmer (RCB) pushes out wide to close him down, which leaves space behind him. Kleemann (CB) sprints to get back to the middle of the pitch to cover some of that space while Benítez (LCB) has to follow his runner. Meanwhile, Willey is attempting to drop back to the center of the defense, and Orange County have a free runner on the far side of the pitch completely unmarked. Additionally, I have no idea how Parano (RW) is able to drop back quickly enough to help with this, but he attempts to kick out wide to help Timmer. Look where everyone ends up:
Timmer (RCB) gets passed around and is no man’s land, Willey (CDM) attempts to get in front of the cross but cannot drop in time, Kleemann (CB) makes a sliding attempt to block but cannot get there from the other side of the pitch in time, and Benítez (LCB) gets beat by his man. Result? Orange County goal. Even if Benítez does not get beat here, look at the back post; OC have two unmarked men making runs, with both Sacramento players trailing several steps behind. It’s impressive that Republic nearly salvaged this; Vitiello gets a hand on it, but not enough. Against any team with better finishing, this is a clear and easy goal. But the Republic formation is in chaos, while the four Orange County players are roughly in their solidified positions.
And the woes on the defensive side are not just isolated to this match; Republic have yet to have a clean sheet this season, even when their defensive structure is intact. Obviously clean sheets are good, but they are not the end all be all if you can score...
…which the Republic really struggles with doing. We are going to get a bit stat heavy here for a second, so bear with me. First, Republic are second to last in shooting accuracy in the league, despite leading the league in shots per match, where they average 15 shots per game. Look at the bottom five teams in shooting accuracy:
That is not great company to be in down at the bottom of the table. Tulsa and North Carolina are higher up in the standings than expected, but Tulsa has only given up three goals all season so they can handle being a weaker offensive team, and North Carolina has played an extra game or two than most of the rest of the Eastern Conference, placing them higher than they should be. That 24% accuracy for the Quails is also significantly lower than the league average of 34.65%.
It gets worse when you look at Republic’s conversion rate (goals/shot attempt):
This graph shows total goals scored against total shots, and then each clubs calculated conversion rate underneath. I’ve circled Republic — they have by far the most shots in the league. While most of the league roughly follows the trend line, Republic, along with Tulsa and Tampa Bay, really are outliers here. The Quails conversion rate is 8.00%, a far cry from the league average of 12.98%. (Side note: Hartford is truly terrible this year. 4.00%? Ouch.)
So what does this all mean? Well, the Republic is shooting, a lot. That can be good — more shots means more offense, right? But when just under one in every four shots is on target, all the team is doing is turning the ball over and wasting the chances they get. Here is the shot accuracy for each player in the team with at least three shots:
Felipe is a huge outlier here. He has more shots than anyone else on the team with 13, but only has a single shot on target. He accounts for 17% of the team's total shots!
Anyone with a shooting accuracy above 30% is doing well and picking their chances wisely. We do need to take these stats with a bit of a grain of salt; Herrera, for example, only has four shots and is often being subbed in when we need to grab a goal. But the numbers are very, very clear that the Republic is massively under performing on the offensive side of the ball. Some part of it is almost certainly bad luck; they are so under performing their expected goals compared to the number of shots that it’s comical. But a few players really need to step up and either put shots on target or rethink the number of shots they are taking.
What Stood Out:
This was a painful game to watch. Disjointed, two own goals, very few bright sides, and all against a division opponent that the Republic should easily be capable of handling. Collins’ and his coaching staff have their work cut out for them — it is clear at this point that the current set up is not yielding results. But, it is still early in the season, and the club has plenty of time to make things right. A few results have gone the Quails way at the top of the table meaning Republic is still only eight points out of the top of the west, despite the very slow start.
Wednesday’s match up against El Farolito provides a few opportunities. While Republic should by no means take the amateur side for granted, there is a good chance here for the coaching staff to more safely tweak the formula, either by altering the formation or playing players who are hungry to show that they can do what the starters have not — win games.