Sacramento at Oakland: Tactical Analysis
05/04: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
In a sunny day game at the Oakland Coliseum, Head Coach Neill Collins was finally able to use what is likely his preferred starting XI for the first time this season. Due to a barrage of injuries and knocks, Republic have had to switch things up quite a bit through the first six matches—particularly in the backline, where the trio of center backs has been different every game but one. Desmond’s return to fitness and action means Collins’ can finally utilize his ideal starting three center backs: Timmer, Kleemann, and Desmond. This also means that Collins can place Benítez as left wingback instead of in the back line, and Gurr played in his usual right wingback spot. Further up the pitch, Roro’s first USL start of the season meant that Collins’ could finally utilize both Roro and Felipe in the center of the pitch and a top three of Parano, Herrera, and Cicerone looks to continue to be Collins’ attacking trio of choice.
The result of a first choice XI? The first clean sheet of the season for Republic in USL play and three very needed points.
The Good:
A win! A road win! Regardless of how it comes, this team desperately needed a win after the worst six game start to a season in club history. To have it come as a road win with a clean sheet over a rival makes it that much sweeter.
Republic offensively tried to play over the top against the Roots and while it did not result in a goal from open play, the movement looked really good. Look at this ball Gurr puts in for Cicerone:
Incredible ball over the top from where Gurr is on the field, and Cicerone puts a fantastic shot on target, Republic’s only shot on target of the match from open play. It’s a shame that Herrera or Parano aren’t following this in closer—it is a great opportunity for a rebound off of a great save.
Defensively, the boys also saw out their first clean sheet of the season, mostly as a result of three controlling players through the center of the pitch: Vitiello in goal, Kleemann in defense, and Felipe in the midfield. Vitiello had 3 saves and 11 possession wins, Kleemann boasted a 90.5% pass accuracy to go with his 16 clearances and 4 aerial duels won out of 5, and Felipe won 8 out of 10 duels in the midfield to go with 2 interceptions and 3 tackles. The defensive side of this game was won in the center of the pitch.
The penalty kick Republic win is also a fantastic piece of play, though the call of a penalty was probably a bit harsh. But look at the lead up to the call:
The dummy here by Parano is elite, Roro follows onto the ball perfectly, and Gurr makes an excellent run in behind to get onto space. Ideally, I think Jack could actually shoot here instead of crossing it, but he wins the PK regardless. Cicerone then steps up and slots it away easily in front of the traveling Battalion and brings his career PK record to seven for eight.
It very much feels like it is only a matter of time before the Republic starts putting more goals away. Post match, Luis Felipe had this to say:
“The stats were there, we were just missing getting the three points. It's great to get it and just move up for now.”
And the stats have been there. The Quails are third in the league in shots. They are seventh in the league in expected goal (xG) difference—that is, how many more goals they should have expected to score than their opponents. They have the third-lowest xG against in the league. Based purely on that information, they are getting extremely unlucky with only having two wins. I acknowledge that xG is not everything, but it is often indicative of when a team is getting lucky or unlucky, and Republic have certainly ended up on the unlucky side so far. Over the course of the season, you would expect that to balance out.
The Bad:
Now, a win is a win, but beating the second-worst defensive team in the USL this season by a single (somewhat fortunate) penalty goal is alarming. Yes, this is a road game and a rivalry match, but Republic’s goal scoring woes are going to continue to be a problem. Ideally, this is a match where a club with major aspirations would expect to score at least once from open play, especially against such a poor defensive team. Oakland has allowed 14 goals this season, an average of 1.75 goals against per game, which is only ahead of Colorado Springs. They also have a -5 goal difference, which is only better than a truly terrible Hartford team.
The main issue remains shots on target, a metric I have continued to point out throughout the season. This match, Sacramento had 7 shots, with only 2 on target. That’s a somewhat respectable number if you’re playing a decent team; it’s not a good number if you’re playing the second worst defense in the league. Once you pull out the penalty kick, you’re really looking at 6 shots, 1 on target. In particular, Louis Felipe continues to have, for lack of a better term, the yips. Look at this shot, one of his 2 total shot (both off target), from this match:
It is not even close; we are at the Coliseum though, so it is technically a home run? Felipe has 15 shots this season, second on the team behind Parano who has 16, but where as Parano has had 4 shots on target (and a goal to show for it), Felipe has *2* shots on target the entire season, no goals, no assists, and yet leads the club in shots per game with 2.5.
I do not mean to be harsh on Felipe here; on the other side of the ball, he’s actually top three in the club this season in tackles won, duels won, and interceptions, despite playing in the midfield. He’s really helped anchor the midfield defensively and was instrumental to this clean sheet. But, Sacramento as a whole also has one of the worst conversion rates in the league at 13.6% despite being third in the league in shots. That conversion rate has to come up if they want to start winning more games. While this is a club wide problem—every player except for Cicerone is averaging under one shot on target per match—Felipe seems to be struggling the most. If he can start getting shots on target, the Republic will start winning more games.
Now, to give Oakland some credit, they did an excellent job shutting down Republic’s over the top play; Republic’s seven shots this match is the lowest in any match this season. The Roots did well to disrupt Republic’s play, and I cannot help but wonder if Republic should have tried to spread the Roots horizontally in the same way they played against New Mexico or Louisville.
Defensively, Republic looked good as mentioned above, but did occasionally have some leaks. Look at this through ball by Oakland:
Both defenders trail the runner, mistime his run, and leave Vitiello out to dry. Fortunately, Danny makes a great double save, but this could have been a much different game. The defense the rest of the match looked really solid though and, with how early in the match this occurs, chalking it up to early game miscommunication with a three at the back that have not played together yet seems fair enough.
What Stood Out:
Momentum is one hell of a thing. This is certainly not how Republic envisioned winning this match; Collins’ all but says so in his post match interview:
“Some things you want to win a certain way, but it's actually sometimes those wins that really kick start. You give the first confidence, it gives them more belief… We're unbeaten in four so there's a little bit of momentum. Long way to go as you can imagine, but good three points.”
As Collins says, sometimes it is not how you win the games, it is the win itself that kicks things off. A first clean sheet and first road win of the season against a rival is certain to give the squad a confidence boost, even going into a tough Open Cup match against San Jose on two days of rest. The real question will be if the squad can stay healthy; Cicerone potentially pitched up a knock this match and Ross is still coming back from injury, though he was able to get some minutes here. A healthy Republic team with momentum has the ability to be a scary team; it is just a matter of trying to keep the momentum going.