Sacramento at Colorado Springs: Tactical Analysis - Defensive Masterclass
06/13: Sacramento’s line up, the good, the bad, and what stood out
The Lineup:
On a night that saw Republic on the backfoot for large portions of the match, a Jack Gurr strike from the middle of the box gave Republic the upper hand. In fact, other than the goal, it was somewhat of a dull match—both teams combined for 3 shots on target and an xG of just 1.05. But those numbers don’t reflect just how one-sided this match was. Stat for stat, Colorado Springs dominated Republic. The Switchbacks had 13 shots to Republic 5, 4 corners to Republic’s 1, and 27 touches in Republic’s box to just 11 for Republic in Colorado’s box.
Colorado Springs came into the game with a game plan that looked to duplicate what the Rising had done to Republic just 2 weeks ago—overload the right side of the pitch to attack Benítez’s side. Let’s compare the attacking areas of both sides:
Colorado is on the left here, Sacramento is on the right. As usual, a longer arrow indicates more attacking movement on that side of the pitch, and brighter colors mean a higher concentration of play. A few things immediately stand out. First, Colorado attacked almost exclusively down their right side of the pitch, and largely kept the ball to the central 3rd of the field. The stats back this up too—their 60.4% possession rate meant that they were hardly ever in their own half.
On the other side of things, Republic basically abandoned the middle of the pitch. Most of their attacking is up the wings and, when they do have possession of the ball, it’s mostly in the defensive 3rd. Republic really struggled to get anything moving forward. Look how pinned into their own half they are:
Things improved a bit when Malango and Spaulding (both not shown) came in on the wings in the 70th minute, but Republic didn’t even sit back this deep while down a man against Monterey. The real question is whether or not this is an intentional tactical tweak or not. Gurr’s post games comments made it sound like it was:
“It was a tough game in a difficult environment, we knew we had to be organized and defend with 11 and take our chance when it came.”
And that shouldn’t be a surprise; tonight’s 39.6% possession was the 4th lowest of the season in all competitions and all 4 of those instances appeared to be specific tactical choices. I have to give credit to Collins here—Republic is 2-1-1 in those 4 matches, with the one loss being against MLS side Minnesota United on penalties and the one draw being last weeks’ game against Monterey while down a man from a red card. When he’s chosen to have the team sit back, it’s gotten results.
The Good:
Defensive Rigidity
It’s not much of a surprise that Republic’s defensive unit put up some impressive player ratings. Gurr and Desmond put up the 2 highest-rated performances on the pitch of either team, and the entire Republic backline and Vitiello averaged a 7.5 player rating—that’s a whole point over the “average” player rating of a 6.5.
The underlying reason for those high numbers is just as impressive. We mentioned earlier just how under pressure Republic was all game—13 shots, 4 corners, and 27 touches in Republic’s box. Despite those values, Republic’s defense held the Switchbacks to just 2 shots on target all match and blocked 5 of the remaining 11 shots before they could reach goal.
Lee Desmond, Jack Gurr, and Danny Vitiello were stars as always, combining for 22 of the back lines’ 36 defensive contributions and Gurr had the teams only shot on target and goal, but we really should shout out Benítez and Timmer here. Benítez hasn’t missed a single match since he joined Republic, and the number of poor matches he’s had could be counted on one hand—his performance tonight while his side of the pitch was regularly under attack is a large part of the reason that this wasn’t a repeat of the Phoenix match and it’s what enabled Gurr to get so far forward. And Timmer had his first game of the season where he played more than a half—and he rewarded that choice with easily his best game of the year. Last week we talked a bit about how he was still finding his sea legs after his surgery and this performance could be a big indicator that he has. Collins shouted out a few guys post game:
“I really think it’s no coincidence we get our first away win of the season, and a clean sheet in a really difficult place when you look at Jared Timmer. He’s starting to find his feet… Lee Desmond and Danny Vitiello, of course, I’ve been playing all season, but when you look at all that experience, I think that’s the thing that really told the story in the second half for us.”
The Bad:
The Front Four
A simple fact continues to dominate Republic discourse, one that has continued to dominate over the past few years: Republic simply can’t find an all out goal scorer. The current lead goal scorer on the team is Benítez, a left back. But who else is scoring?
Just as expected, it’s the defense. Wait… what? Let’s break that down a bit. This is separated into 2 categories—one for all competitions, and one looking at just USL-C games. This felt like an important distinction. Republic scoring 4 goals against League 1 Spokane and UPSL Valley 559 is very different from scoring against teams on their level. In fact, Republic strikers only have 3 goals in USL-C play. That’s outrageous through 11 matches.
Now, this does come with a caveat—per match, there are 6 players in the defensive category, 3 in the midfielder category, and only 1 forward. But even then, I would not expect the Republic defense to be leading in the goal scoring department, nor should they be. But this isn’t to remark that the defense should have fewer goals—rather, it’s a sign of how poor the offense has been. Compared to the defense’s average player rating of 7.5 tonight, the offense averaged a 6.4. They didn’t have a shot on target—in fact, of the starting 4 forward players, only one (Memo) recorded a single shot.
The offense is simply not working and hasn’t been for a while. And it’s not really on account of the tactics. In the previous 5 matches, Republic has put up an xG of 6.60 for an average of 1.32 a match, yet have scored just 4 goals in those 5 matches. The chances are, once again, there for the taking—they just aren’t finished.
Faltering in the Air
This is going to be a stat to look for over the next few matches, as Republic’s aerial dominance has fallen off a cliff. Tonight, Republic went 11 for 35 when challenging 50/50 balls in the air, good for a win rate of just 31%. And that’s not a one-off; over the last 5 matches, Republic is averaging 10.6 wins a game for just a 41.7% win rate. Compare that to the rest of the season where, prior to these 5 matches, Republic was averaging 21.8 wins a game and a 58.9% win rate.
So not only has the win rate faltered, but Republic is missing, on average, just over 11 aerial duals a game. Those are corners not being won, possessions in the midfield not being taken. That it is such a drastic fall off from the rest of the season, during a period when Republic has struggled to control the ball, tells the story.
What Stood Out:
A win, as nervy and non-controlling as it was, puts Republic immediately back into the playoff race. Despite being 6th in table, Republic is actually tied for 4th in points per game with Tulsa, due to several teams having played a match or 2 extra than the rest of the field. And outside of San Antonio and Orange County, both of whom have more games played than Republic, just four points separate 9 teams in the West. Collins commented on the club’s need to find form in a crowded Western Conference:
“I think for us, can we allow consistency in our lineup? That’s going to be important. I think teams that are successful are able to keep key guys fit... There’s not a lot of teams with loads and loads of wins. So, I think if we can keep picking up points on the road and then winning at home, that’s going to put us in a really good spot.”
The real question will be if Republic can keep these guys healthy—here’s to hoping that the injury bug bit early, and will stay away the rest of the year.
